National Championship 2025 - Mexico - Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X (CC)

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Osmar Bravo

1st • 6-3-0

56%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.8

Surp

4.0

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Moroni Hernández Monroy (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Pedro Josafat Valdez De León (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs SERGIO PARTIDA HERNANDEZ (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Miguel Rubio (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Oscar Vargas (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Carlos Vazquez (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Eduardo Daniel García Reyes (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50

75:25

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs David Lewis (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 77:23

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Tulio Marquez (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.13
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.16
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.71
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.11
R11	CC	Puffin, Hightail	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.47
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.37

HIROKI ASAUMI

20th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.3

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Luis Angel Vazquez (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 66:34

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Oscar Vargas (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Octavio chaparro beltran (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs SERGIO PARTIDA HERNANDEZ (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Luis Manuel García Luna Perez (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs OMAR MATA (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.10
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R8	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R9	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.77

Emiliano Tatan

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.4

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Julio Heredia (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jesus Huerta (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Natanael Eguren (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Fernando Valenzuela (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.61
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.77
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.