Vynnset, Iron Maiden at National Championship 2025

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

César Barajas

24th • 5-1-0

83%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

3.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Luis Franco (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Roberto Gael Busnelli Cifuentes (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Eduardo Daniel García Reyes (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Natanael Eguren (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

80:20

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs KI JO HAN KIM (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Pedro Josafat Valdez De León (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Loss	✓	0.80	-
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.76
R8	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.42
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.86

Luis Angel Jiménez Barrios

16th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.4

Surp

2.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rafael Eduardo Jaimes Hurtado (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Fernando Valenzuela (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Oscar Vargas (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 25:75

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Carlo Villarreal (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Pedro Josafat Valdez De León (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Diego Alejandro Correa Miramontes (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.24
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.80
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.76
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Braulio Mora

23rd • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.3

Surp

5.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Miguel Rubio (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Diego de Alba Montes (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 38:62

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ricardo Castillo (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Luis Manuel García Luna Perez (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

20:80

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Moroni Hernández Monroy (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Luis Canche (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

5.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.76
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Win	✗	0.80	3.07
R9	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.