Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at National Championship

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Carlo Ople

3rd • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

4.3

Surp

5.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Octavio (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Paolo rodrigo Pamintuan (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Timothy Laraya (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Matthew Ericsson Marquez (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Alexander miguel SY (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 68:32

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Joshua Litam (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Janbert Dela Cruz (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 46:54

70:30

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

5.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.16
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.23
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.33
R10	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.80
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.78
R12	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R13	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.81
R14	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-

Jomari Daniel Panganiban

38th • 4-2-0

17%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.2

Surp

5.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Axxel Justin Prado (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Troy Gales (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rainier Noel Andes (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

30:70

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Raymond Baligaya (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Mort Castillo (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Regin Kevin Pilapil (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

5.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.30
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.71
R10	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	30%	Win	✗	0.69	2.83
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.98
R12	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Lorenzo Salazar

52nd • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jaime Leon Warren (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Paolo Angel (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chard Tan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Rainier Noel Andes (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 38:62

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Chris Javier Mapalo (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Stephen Brian Lim (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.21
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R10	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R11	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.59

Rayvie Anthony Pecajas

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rainier Noel Andes (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Trix Ferreras (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Neil Bautista (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Troy Gales (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R10	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.