National Championship 2025 - Philippines - Oscilio, Constella Intelligence (CC)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Carlo Ople

3rd • 6-2-0

62%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

4.2

Surp

5.2

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Octavio (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Paolo rodrigo Pamintuan (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Timothy Laraya (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Matthew Ericsson Marquez (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Alexander miguel SY (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Joshua Litam (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Janbert Dela Cruz (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 42:58

65:35

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

5.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.14
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.27
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.34
R10	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.61
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.85
R12	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R13	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Win	✗	0.58	2.01
R14	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Jomari Daniel Panganiban

38th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

4.8

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Axxel Justin Prado (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Troy Gales (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rainier Noel Andes (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Raymond Baligaya (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Mort Castillo (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Regin Kevin Pilapil (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.36
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R10	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.88
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.54	2.05
R12	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Lorenzo Salazar

52nd • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.4

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jaime Leon Warren (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Paolo Angel (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chard Tan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Rainier Noel Andes (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Chris Javier Mapalo (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Stephen Brian Lim (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.18
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R10	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R11	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R12	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.96

Rayvie Anthony Pecajas

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rainier Noel Andes (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Trix Ferreras (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Neil Bautista (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Troy Gales (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R10	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.