National Championship 2025 - Philippines - Vynnset, Iron Maiden (CC)

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Chris Javier Mapalo

46th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.0

Surp

4.7

Diff

Deck

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs James Vincent Wong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jose Gerard Kawada (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Patrick Poe Cadano (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Richard Malcolm II Chuaunsu (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Lorenzo Salazar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Christopher Bryan Dayak (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.27
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R10	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	2.02
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.96

Julian Erick Pixel Fabian

28th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

3.3

Diff

Deck

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Chard Tan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Myles Lim (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Samuel Angelo Regalado (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Ralph Gomeri (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jonathan Malabed (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Michael Joseph Villano (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.33
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R10	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.40
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.57

Cristopher Allen Franco

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Reynald Jay Payad (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Franco Antonio Regalado (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.30
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.56
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Matthew Francis Espiritu

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

2.8

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bryan Pocholo Miguel Illana (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Carlo Luis Santos (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 44:56

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Miguel Carandang (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (1.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.79
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	25%	Win	✗	0.75	2.01

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.