Vynnset, Iron Maiden at National Championship 2025

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Chris Javier Mapalo

46th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

3.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs James Vincent Wong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jose Gerard Kawada (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Patrick Poe Cadano (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Richard Malcolm II Chuaunsu (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Lorenzo Salazar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Christopher Bryan Dayak (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.25
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.34
R10	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.83
R12	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.38	1.37

Julian Erick Pixel Fabian

28th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

3.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Chard Tan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 27:73

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Myles Lim (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 62:38

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Samuel Angelo Regalado (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Ralph Gomeri (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jonathan Malabed (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Michael Joseph Villano (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.23
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R10	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.33	1.14

Cristopher Allen Franco

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Reynald Jay Payad (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Franco Antonio Regalado (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.56
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Matthew Francis Espiritu

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bryan Pocholo Miguel Illana (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Carlo Luis Santos (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 67:33

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Miguel Carandang (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.39
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	20%	Win	✗	0.80	2.30

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.