National Championship 2025 - Philippines - Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter (CC)

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Justin Cu

2nd • 8-1-0

89%

Meta

+3.2

Perf

4.2

Surp

7.3

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alexander miguel SY (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nathaniel Jerald Bea (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Cristopher Allen Franco (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Timothy Laraya (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Joshua Litam (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

R12

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Juan Gabriel Venegas (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Alexander miguel SY (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Carlo Ople (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Joniel Ibasco (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

7.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.19
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.54
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.45	1.06
R12	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R13	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.44
R14	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Win	✗	0.65	2.37
R15	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Alexander miguel SY

5th • 2-5-0

86%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.5

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Rey Sarenas (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kimm Gonzales (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 74:26

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Joshua Litam (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Carlo Ople (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Janbert Dela Cruz (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.19
R10	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R13	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Andre Ryan See

9th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.1

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joel Guzman (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs John Ezekiel Recalde (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ralph Gomeri (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Bryan Pocholo Miguel Illana (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Patrick Poe Cadano (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Edric Ramos (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.26
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Win	✗	0.78	0.72
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.74
R10	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.40	1.36
R12	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Nathaniel Jerald Bea

23rd • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.8

Surp

4.2

Diff

Deck

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jiggy de Asis (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs John Paul Baltazar (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Andhiko Y Dhewodiningrat (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Matthew Ericsson Marquez (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Angelito Jr Eusebio (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.95
R11	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	2.07
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Alexander Rey Sarenas

26th • 1-5-0

67%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

Deck

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Paolo rodrigo Pamintuan (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 22:78

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander miguel SY (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs James Vincent Wong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Janbert Dela Cruz (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Joel Guzman (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66

70:30

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Carl Rivera (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.97

James Vincent Wong

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

Deck

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Chris Javier Mapalo (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mort Castillo (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Rey Sarenas (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Josiah Jr Gosingtian (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.