Dorinthea Ironsong at National Championship 2025

Dorinthea Ironsong

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jaime Manzano

21st • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

2.8

Surp

3.9

Diff

Deck

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Marcelle Fabie (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ralph Gomeri (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs John Ezekiel Recalde (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs paolo mayo (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Regin Kevin Pilapil (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Timothy Laraya (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.28
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.82
R11	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.39	1.31
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Troy Gales

55th • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.7

Surp

3.7

Diff

Deck

15:85

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Genico Boy (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 15:85

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jomari Daniel Panganiban (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jian Botor (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Rayvie Anthony Pecajas (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Khyle Kent Alviz (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Mort Castillo (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.56
R11	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Win	✗	0.56	2.18
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

John Ezekiel Recalde

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.3

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lean Gabriel Alfafara (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 44:56

80:20

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andre Ryan See (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jaime Manzano (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Michael Joseph Villano (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.30
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Paolo rodrigo Pamintuan

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.9

Diff

Deck

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alexander Rey Sarenas (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 78:22

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Carlo Ople (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Yap (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.12
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.75

Trix Ferreras

dropped • 2-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Janbert Dela Cruz (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Rayvie Anthony Pecajas (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Carlo Luis Santos (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.62
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.71

joel amad

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.3

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Arvin Jesus De Leon (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hans Alviar (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rayland Luiz Duarte (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.30
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.