National Championship 2025 - Philippines - Rhinar, Reckless Rampage (CC)

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Regin Kevin Pilapil

25th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.6

Diff

Deck

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Renz Mascardo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Chard Tan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lean Gabriel Alfafara (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 52:48

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Juan Gabriel Venegas (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jaime Manzano (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jomari Daniel Panganiban (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.28
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R10	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.89

Rainier Noel Andes

48th • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.7

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rayvie Anthony Pecajas (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Donovon Jose Panganiban (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jomari Daniel Panganiban (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Lorenzo Salazar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Carl Rivera (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Richard Anthony "Kampai" Bustamante (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.57
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R12	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Aldrin Paul Arugay

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.3

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ralph Gomeri (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lean Gabriel Alfafara (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Stephen Brian Lim (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.32

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.