Rhinar, Reckless Rampage at National Championship 2025

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Regin Kevin Pilapil

25th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.1

Diff

Florian, Rotwood Harbinger

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Renz Mascardo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Chard Tan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 46:54

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lean Gabriel Alfafara (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Uzuri, Switchblade

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Juan Gabriel Venegas (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Dorinthea Ironsong

R11

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Jaime Manzano (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jomari Daniel Panganiban (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.28
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R10	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Win	✓	0.38	1.36

Rainier Noel Andes

48th • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.2

Diff

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rayvie Anthony Pecajas (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 62:38

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Donovon Jose Panganiban (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 17:83

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jomari Daniel Panganiban (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Lorenzo Salazar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 62:38

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

15:85

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Carl Rivera (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 17:83

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Richard Anthony "Kampai" Bustamante (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.11
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Win	✓	0.38	1.13
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R12	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Aldrin Paul Arugay

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

Fang, Dracai of Blades

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ralph Gomeri (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Ira, Scarlet Revenger

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lean Gabriel Alfafara (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Jarl Vetreiði

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Stephen Brian Lim (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.