National Championship 2025 - Philippines - Azalea, Ace in the Hole (CC)

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Joniel Ibasco

1st • 9-0-0

44%

Meta

+5.0

Perf

5.0

Surp

10.0

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Richard Anthony "Kampai" Bustamante (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Khyle Kent Alviz (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Albert Miko Mariano (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Samuel Angelo Regalado (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Jian Botor (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Bryan Pocholo Miguel Illana (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Edric Ramos (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R14 CC

Round 14: Win vs Joshua Litam (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Justin Cu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

44% (4/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+5.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

10.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.17
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.30
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.47
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.91
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.19
R12	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.81
R13	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.86
R14	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.52
R15	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.77

Hans Alviar

17th • 5-1-0

67%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

5.4

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs arthur Sarenas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs joel amad (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Bryan Pocholo Miguel Illana (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 39:61

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Kimm Gonzales (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Samuel Angelo Regalado (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Renz Mascardo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

5.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.13
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.40
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R10	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.49
R11	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.51
R12	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.89

Richard Malcolm II Chuaunsu

44th • 4-2-0

17%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

2.9

Surp

3.9

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gino Roberto Cobarrubias (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Patrick Poe Cadano (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Axxel Justin Prado (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Chris Javier Mapalo (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs paolo mayo (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Ralph Gomeri (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.25
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.46
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R10	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.97
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R12	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	1.24

Franco Antonio Regalado

43rd • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mikko Pena (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Cristopher Allen Franco (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Gino Roberto Cobarrubias (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Troy Fiel (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Genico Boy (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 34:66

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jose Gerard Kawada (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.13
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R11	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R12	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.43	1.65

Mark David Octavio

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.3

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Miguel Carandang (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rod Waje (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs paolo mayo (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.27
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Neil Bautista

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Raymond Baligaya (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 38:62

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Cristerson Chee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rayvie Anthony Pecajas (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.49

matoshi anthony Del mundo

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jose Gerard Kawada (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Bryan Dayak (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 39:61

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Einan Dominic Ramos (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.79

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.