Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X at National Championship 2025

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Edric Ramos

5th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.5

Surp

4.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joshua Myles Lim (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bryan Pocholo Miguel Illana (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Victor Felix (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Rod Waje (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Jayvee Fajardo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Andre Ryan See (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Joniel Ibasco (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.19
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.28
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.43
R11	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.94
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.59
R13	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Rod Waje

20th • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Marlon Ilagan (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mark David Octavio (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Juan Gabriel Venegas (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Edric Ramos (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Victor Felix (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Keenan Fernandez (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.20
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.25
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	1.20
R12	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Josiah Jr Gosingtian

40th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.7

Surp

3.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Keenan Fernandez (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Joseph Villano (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Renz Mascardo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs James Vincent Wong (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Andhiko Y Dhewodiningrat (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Chard Tan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.22
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.55
R11	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.36	1.20
R12	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Kevin Octavio

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Carlo Ople (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Miguel Carandang (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Joseph Villano (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.66

Jaime Leon Warren

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lorenzo Salazar (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Christian Francisco (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Richard Anthony "Kampai" Bustamante (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.