National Championship 2025 - Philippines - Katsu, the Wanderer (CC)

Katsu, the Wanderer

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Raymond Baligaya

50th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

3.8

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Neil Bautista (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs John Paul Baltazar (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Keenan Fernandez (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jomari Daniel Panganiban (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Cristerson Chee (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Andhiko Y Dhewodiningrat (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.11
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.26
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.64
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.65	2.78
R12	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Albert Miko Mariano

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.1

Diff

Deck

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jian Botor (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Angelito Jr Eusebio (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joniel Ibasco (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.57
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.51
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Andrew Yap

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.5

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Patrick Poe Cadano (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs arthur Sarenas (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Paolo rodrigo Pamintuan (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.51
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.