Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry at Battle Hardened: Geneva 2024
Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry
9 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 7-2-0
44%
Meta
+2.5
Perf
4.4
Surp
3.4
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Leonel Torrealba (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 68:32
Round 2: Win vs Maurice Hostettler (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Manuel Köber (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 47:53
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Thiago Almeida Cunha (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Maximilian Schmidt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Louis Guillot (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Enki Dupaquier (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 47:53
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Evan Tanguy (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 59:41
35:65
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Simon Nielsen (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
44% (4/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 60% | Win |
| R9 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
14th • 5-1-1
86%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
2.4
Surp
2.0
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs Alessandro Faveri (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 59:41
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Simon Otterburg (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 69:31
90:10
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Quentin Piguet (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 92:8
80:20
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Lucas RUZAFA (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 80:20
35:65
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Andrea Zaffalon (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Dayvid Kayal (Unknown)
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Joyce Bugnard (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 60% | Draw |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 90% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 80% | Win |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
| R6 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 60% | Win |
17th • 5-2-0
71%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.3
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Arnaud Mabboux (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 72:28
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Enki Dupaquier (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 47:53
Round 3: Loss vs Lucas RUZAFA (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Igor Koutzevitch (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Grigorian Tigran (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Nico Grieco (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 47:53
80:20
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Vincenzo Di Maio (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 78:22
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 80% | Loss |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 80% | Win |
22nd • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.5
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Lisa-Marie Schulte (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 63:37
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Kevin Steiger (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Lancelot Errico (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Patrick Jud (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 47:53
70:30
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Markus Heimbeck (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 68:32
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Evan Tanguy (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 59:41
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Nico Grieco (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 45% | Loss |
28th • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.1
Surp
1.6
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Simon REMBRY (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 57:43
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Victor Bousch (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 59:41
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Simon Nielsen (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Maximilian Schmidt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Ilian Baylon (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 49:51
70:30
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Markus Heimbeck (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 68:32
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Patrick Jud (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 45% | Loss |
40th • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.9
Surp
2.3
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Simon Nielsen (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Léo Dupraz (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64
Round 3: Loss vs Simon Otterburg (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ugo Troenli (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 59:41
80:20
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Andrei Pervikov (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 80:20
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Thomas G Jud (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 49:51
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Xavier Mudry (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 70% | Loss |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 80% | Win |
| R6 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Win |
42nd • 3-4-0
86%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
2.9
Surp
0.5
Diff
80:20
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Lucas RUZAFA (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 80:20
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Samuel Mudry (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 68:32
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Thiago Almeida Cunha (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 59:41
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Thomas VUILLAUMIER (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 49:51
80:20
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Nico Schleier (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 78:22
Round 6: Loss vs Patrick Paitz (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Patrik Koller (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 80% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 80% | Win |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 70% | Loss |
| R7 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 35% | Loss |
46th • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
3.1
Surp
0.7
Diff
90:10
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Daja Todesco (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 92:8
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Grigorian Tigran (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Theo Montero Ciscar (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Michael Gut (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Nolan Varone (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40
70:30
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Leonel Torrealba (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 68:32
Round 7: Loss vs Sebastian Spicher (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 90% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Loss |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 80% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-1
83%
Meta
-2.4
Perf
3.0
Surp
0.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Ilian Baylon (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 49:51
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Alexandre Varone (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 68:32
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Michael Gut (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Nolan Varone (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 60:40
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Draw vs simon diaz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Aaron Heimbeck (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 60:40
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Loss |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 60% | Draw |
| R6 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 60% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.