Battle Hardened: Geneva 2024 - Verdance, Thorn of the Rose (CC)

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Nico Schleier

38th • 4-2-1

57%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.7

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Enki Dupaquier (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 32:68

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Dallas Catillaz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 32:68

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andrei Pervikov (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Niels Rohrer (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kevin Jenni (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Alexandre Varone (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Markus Heimbeck (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	30%	Draw	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.23
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R6	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.43
R7	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.51

Vincenzo Di Maio

24th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.4

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Danny Feliz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Rahma sinien (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 73:27

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Marc Lanigra (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 70:30

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Oliver Gehrig (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Louis Guillot (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Diogo Vala (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.07
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	75%	Win	✓	0.27	0.13
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.22
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.98
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Sebastian Spicher

30th • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

3.1

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Theo Montero Ciscar (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs steve thiebaut (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kevin Steiger (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Leonhard Hecher (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 71:29

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nico Grieco (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 32:68

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Marc Alexandre (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 32:68

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs robin gasparini (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.26
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.49
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.28
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R7	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	25%	Win	✗	0.76	2.09

Niels Rohrer

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.8

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rahma sinien (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gabriel Ankeshian (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 27:73

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nico Schleier (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	75%	Loss	✓	0.73	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.