Battle Hardened: Geneva 2024 - Azalea, Ace in the Hole (CC)

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kai Martin

19th • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

3.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Maurice Philip (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bruno Marty (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Patrick Jud (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Gabriel Ankeshian (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Manuel Köber (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Simon Otterburg (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Laurent Lecomte (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.14
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.60
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.73
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.80
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.02

Manuel Wachouschek

35th • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.7

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Hugo Jobe (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yann HENRI (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ilian Baylon (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Léo Dupraz (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alessandro Faveri (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Joyce Bugnard (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Thierry Bonard (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.53
R5	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.89
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Thierry Bonard

48th • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Thierry Mévillot (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lancelot Errico (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Maurice Hostettler (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daja Todesco (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lucas RUZAFA (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 43:57

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Bruno Marty (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Manuel Wachouschek (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.40
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.42
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kevin Steiger

62nd • 2-4-1

57%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alexandre Varone (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs STEPHANE LE ROY (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sebastian Spicher (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Quentin Piguet (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Rafael Boog (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Draw vs Victor Bousch (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 42:58

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Lucas RUZAFA (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.14
R2	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.65
R5	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	40%	Draw	✗	0.42	-
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Diogo Vala

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Thomas G Jud (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas VUILLAUMIER (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Louis Guillot (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Danny Feliz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alexandre Varone (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Vincenzo Di Maio (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.18
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.65
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.82
R6	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.