Azalea, Ace in the Hole at Battle Hardened: Geneva 2024
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
19th • 5-2-0
100%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
3.3
Surp
3.2
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Maurice Philip (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Bruno Marty (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 64:36
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Patrick Jud (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Gabriel Ankeshian (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Manuel Köber (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Simon Otterburg (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Laurent Lecomte (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
35th • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.5
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Hugo Jobe (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Yann HENRI (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 62:38
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Ilian Baylon (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 41:59
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Léo Dupraz (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Alessandro Faveri (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Joyce Bugnard (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Thierry Bonard (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
48th • 3-4-0
100%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.1
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Thierry Mévillot (Unknown)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Lancelot Errico (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Maurice Hostettler (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 53:47
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Daja Todesco (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Lucas RUZAFA (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Bruno Marty (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 64:36
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Manuel Wachouschek (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
62nd • 2-4-1
57%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
3.6
Surp
0.7
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Alexandre Varone (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs STEPHANE LE ROY (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Sebastian Spicher (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Quentin Piguet (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Rafael Boog (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Draw vs Victor Bousch (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Lucas RUZAFA (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 45% | Draw |
| R7 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
17%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.0
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Thomas G Jud (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Thomas VUILLAUMIER (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Louis Guillot (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Danny Feliz (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Alexandre Varone (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Vincenzo Di Maio (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
17% (1/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.