Aurora, Shooting Star
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 7-2-0
89%
Meta
+2.2
Perf
4.3
Surp
3.4
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Sebastian Spicher (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Luca Kleck (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs robin gasparini (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Lancelot Errico (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Marc Alexandre (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Oliver Gehrig (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Evan Tanguy (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Lancelot Errico (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Enki Dupaquier (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
89% (8/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
3.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 55% | Loss |
5th • 5-3-0
100%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
4.0
Surp
1.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs simon diaz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Thierry Bonard (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs STEPHANE LE ROY (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Theo Montero Ciscar (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Enki Dupaquier (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Andrea Zaffalon (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Simon Nielsen (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Theo Montero Ciscar (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (8/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
13th • 5-1-1
86%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs Dallas Catillaz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Thomas G Jud (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 65:35
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Patrick Urfer (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs robin gasparini (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Daja Todesco (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Lisa-Marie Schulte (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 60:40
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Thiago Almeida Cunha (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Draw |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
12th • 5-2-0
86%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Maurice Hostettler (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Térence Nicolas (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Diogo Vala (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Laurent Lecomte (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45
75:25
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Vincenzo Di Maio (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Kevin Pennec (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Daja Todesco (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R6 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Win |
20th • 4-3-0
100%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Joyce Bugnard (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Dayvid Kayal (Unknown)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Evan Tanguy (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Vincenzo Di Maio (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Simon Nielsen (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Theo Montero Ciscar (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 7: Loss vs Thomas VUILLAUMIER (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 65% | Loss |
31st • 4-3-0
100%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.1
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Léo Dupraz (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Maximilian Schmidt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Enki Dupaquier (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Maurice Philip (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Kevin Steiger (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Patrick Jud (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Dayvid Kayal (Unknown)
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
69th • 2-5-0
100%
Meta
-1.9
Perf
3.9
Surp
1.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Patrick Jud (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Patrik Koller (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Yann HENRI (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Dallas Catillaz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 51:49
Round 5: Loss vs Xavier Mudry (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
Round 6: Loss vs Rahma sinien (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Térence Nicolas (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
74th • 1-6-0
71%
Meta
-2.7
Perf
3.2
Surp
0.1
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Luca Kleck (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 42:58
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Niels Rohrer (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Leonhard Hecher (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 40:60
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Kai Martin (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Samuel Mudry (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Gints Dreimanis (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 55:45
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs steve thiebaut (Dash I/O) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.