Aurora, Shooting Star at Battle Hardened: Geneva 2024

Aurora, Shooting Star

8 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Theo Montero Ciscar

3rd • 7-2-0

100%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.4

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sebastian Spicher (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Luca Kleck (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs robin gasparini (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lancelot Errico (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Marc Alexandre (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Oliver Gehrig (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Evan Tanguy (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Lancelot Errico (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Enki Dupaquier (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.05
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.46
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Lancelot Errico

5th • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs simon diaz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Thierry Bonard (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs STEPHANE LE ROY (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Theo Montero Ciscar (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Enki Dupaquier (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Andrea Zaffalon (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Simon Nielsen (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Theo Montero Ciscar (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.23
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.32
R4	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.77
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R8	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Michael Gut

13th • 5-1-1

86%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Dallas Catillaz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Thomas G Jud (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Patrick Urfer (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs robin gasparini (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Daja Todesco (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 45:55

80:20

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Lisa-Marie Schulte (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 81:19

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Thiago Almeida Cunha (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.19
R3	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.36
R4	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R5	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R6	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.26
R7	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Louis Guillot

12th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Maurice Hostettler (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Térence Nicolas (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Diogo Vala (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Laurent Lecomte (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Vincenzo Di Maio (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kevin Pennec (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Daja Todesco (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.29
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.40
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R5	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.35
R6	CC	Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.14

Oliver Gehrig

20th • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joyce Bugnard (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dayvid Kayal (Unknown)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Evan Tanguy (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Vincenzo Di Maio (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Simon Nielsen (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Theo Montero Ciscar (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Thomas VUILLAUMIER (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.28
R5	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	CC	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Rafael Boog

31st • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Léo Dupraz (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Maximilian Schmidt (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Enki Dupaquier (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Maurice Philip (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Kevin Steiger (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Patrick Jud (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Dayvid Kayal (Unknown)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.15
R2	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.67
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jonathan Dumont

69th • 2-5-0

86%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Patrick Jud (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Patrik Koller (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yann HENRI (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dallas Catillaz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Xavier Mudry (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Rahma sinien (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Térence Nicolas (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Nuu, Alluring Desire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R7	CC	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.02

Gabriel Ankeshian

74th • 1-6-0

71%

Meta

-2.7

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Luca Kleck (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 50:50

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Niels Rohrer (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Leonhard Hecher (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kai Martin (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Samuel Mudry (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Gints Dreimanis (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs steve thiebaut (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.14
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.