Florian, Rotwood Harbinger at Battle Hardened: Geneva 2024
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
41st • 3-3-1
57%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
3.0
Surp
0.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Patrik Koller (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Maurice Philip (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Hugo Jobe (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 62:38
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ilian Baylon (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42
30:70
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs STEPHANE LE ROY (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 32:68
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Felix Krisch (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 32:68
30:70
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Nico Schleier (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 30:70
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 65% | Draw |
| R4 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
| R6 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
56th • 3-4-0
71%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.3
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Steiger (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 55:45
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Patrick Urfer (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 32:68
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Thomas G Jud (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Arnaud Mabboux (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Diogo Vala (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 55:45
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Nico Schleier (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 30:70
75:25
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Andrei Pervikov (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 76:24
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 75% | Win |
58th • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Térence Nicolas (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Kevin Jenni (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 32:68
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Nico Grieco (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 25:75
Round 4: Loss vs Lian Mintz (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Gabriel Ankeshian (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Grigorian Tigran (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Ugo Troenli (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Loss |
| R5 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 55% | Win |
60th • 2-5-0
29%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.3
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Lian Mintz (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 76:24
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Igor Koutzevitch (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Vincenzo Di Maio (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 30:70
15:85
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Patrick Paitz (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 12:88
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Patrick Jud (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 25:75
25:75
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Manuel Köber (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 25:75
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Michael Wachouschek (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 15% | Loss |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 25% | Loss |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 25% | Loss |
61st • 2-5-0
57%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
3.2
Surp
0.6
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Pennec (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 32:68
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Arnaud Mabboux (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Victor Bousch (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Andrea Zaffalon (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 49:51
Round 5: Loss vs Hugo Jobe (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
30:70
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs robin gasparini (Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry) - Expected: 32:68
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Bruno Marty (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 65% | Loss |
| R6 | Enigma, Ledger of Ancestry | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
64th • 2-5-0
57%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.6
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Vincenzo Di Maio (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 30:70
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Leonhard Hecher (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Dallas Catillaz (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Diogo Vala (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 55:45
75:25
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Aaron Heimbeck (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 76:24
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Xavier Mudry (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53
15:85
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Simon Otterburg (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 12:88
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Win |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 15% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
40%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.1
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Cyril LEROUX (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 62:38
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Manuel Köber (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 25:75
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Michael Wachouschek (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 25:75
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Gints Dreimanis (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 25:75
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Thomas G Jud (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 25% | Loss |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 25% | Loss |
| R5 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 60% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.