Chane, Bound by Shadow at SAT 0900 Battle Hardened - SCG CON Columbus
Chane, Bound by Shadow
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 6-2-0
75%
Meta
+2.0
Perf
4.0
Surp
2.9
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Tyler Garcia (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
45:55
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs ANDREW WEBBER (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Roger Bodee (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
60:40
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Mara Faris (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R6 LL
Round 6: Win vs Travis McDaniel (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R7 LL
Round 7: Win vs Lucas Barding (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R8 LL
Round 8: Loss vs Wyatt Goehring (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
75% (6/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
5th • 5-3-0
88%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
4.1
Surp
2.1
Diff
50:50
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Phillip Pelley (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Daniel Hayslip (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Aaron Williams (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 43:57
R4
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Nathaniel Snyder (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
50:50
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs Wyatt Goehring (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 50:50
R6
R6 LL
Round 6: Win vs Zachary Adams (Unknown)
50:50
R7 LL
Round 7: Loss vs Kevin Brayer (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R8 LL
Round 8: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
88% (7/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
4.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
26th • 4-3-0
100%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.4
Diff
50:50
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Barding (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R2
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Thomas Bray (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R3
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Ren Fisk (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
R4
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Zoe Kelsey (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R5
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Vince Biamonte (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R6
R6 LL
Round 6: Win vs Jacob Thomas (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
50:50
R7 LL
Round 7: Loss vs Jake Smith (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
38th • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Scott Hill (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory
50:50
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Barding (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs ANDREW WEBBER (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Nicholas Tawab (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 53:47
R5
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Logan Reinert (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
Round 6: Loss vs Cristopher Allen (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
25:75
R7 LL
Round 7: Loss vs Ethan Davison (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
80%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.4
Diff
45:55
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Roger Bodee (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 43:57
R2
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Kopchak (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
55:45
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Rhea Adams (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Griesdorn (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs Isaac Davison (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.