Kano, Dracai of Aether at SAT 0900 Battle Hardened

Kano, Dracai of Aether

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Nathaniel Snyder

19th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Kopchak (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Michael Lee (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Jacob Thomas (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Barding (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs Austin Henry (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

45:55

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 46:54

R7 LL

Round 7: Loss vs Charles Simmons (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	LL	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	LL	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	LL	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Patrick Ovaert

33rd • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

45:55

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Aaron Shantz (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 46:54

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Charles Ligato (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Crowley (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs Darin Key (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 50:50

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Dakota Jones (Unknown)

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.16
R2	LL	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	LL	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	LL	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	LL	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	LL	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

isaac Stanley

34th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.7

Diff

45:55

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Patrick Nelson (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Tatiana Parada (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Samuel Parsons (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 50:50

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Colby Corder (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R5 LL

Round 5: Loss vs Douglas Jones (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R6 LL

Round 6: Win vs Thomas Bray (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Matthew Crowley (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.32
R3	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	LL	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	LL	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	LL	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	LL	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Kaleb Jarrett

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Abigail Welday (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

45:55

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Chris Weidinger (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 46:54

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Bradley Hughes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Dakota Jones (Unknown)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Aurora, Shooting Star	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	LL	Viserai, Rune Blood	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	LL	Dromai, Ash Artist	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	LL	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.