Aurora, Shooting Star at SAT 0900 Battle Hardened - SCG CON Columbus
Aurora, Shooting Star
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 5-3-0
50%
Meta
+2.0
Perf
3.6
Surp
3.2
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Vince Biamonte (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
50:50
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs David Massey (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Patrick Ovaert (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 57:43
30:70
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Wyatt Goehring (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 32:68
R5
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Brett Merold (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Round 6: Win vs Hayden Jeanson (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 18:82, underdog victory
20:80
R7 LL
Round 7: Loss vs Roger Bodee (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 18:82
30:70
R8 LL
Round 8: Loss vs Dan Groseclose (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 32:68
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 20% | Win |
| R7 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 20% | Loss |
| R8 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 30% | Loss |
22nd • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
3.2
Surp
2.0
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Chris Weidinger (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
R2
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Vince Biamonte (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
30:70
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Timothy Scroggs (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 32:68
30:70
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Charles Simmons (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 30:70
55:45
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs isaac Stanley (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R6 LL
Round 6: Win vs Salem Hunt (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 48:52
R7
R7 LL
Round 7: Loss vs Cristopher Allen (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Loss |
32nd • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
2.7
Surp
2.1
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
20:80
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Thomas (Dash I/O) - Expected: 19:81
50:50
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Lemont Peyton (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R4
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Bryant Siders (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
R5
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Benjamin Kopchak (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
20:80
R6 LL
Round 6: Loss vs Darin Key (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 18:82
65:35
R7 LL
Round 7: Win vs Daniel Hayslip (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 62:38
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 20% | Loss |
| R7 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 65% | Win |
40th • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
2.8
Surp
2.0
Diff
20:80
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Devin McAtee (Dash I/O) - Expected: 19:81
R2
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs James Anderson (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
50:50
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Shope (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 48:52
Round 4: Win vs Bradley Hughes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
20:80
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs ANDREW WEBBER (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 18:82
R6
R6 LL
Round 6: Win vs Sherman Darrenkamp (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
35:65
R7 LL
Round 7: Loss vs Mara Faris (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 20% | Loss |
| R6 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
50%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.9
Diff
55:45
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Kaleb Jarrett (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 57:43
Round 2: Win vs Jake Smith (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
30:70
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Dan Groseclose (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 32:68
R4
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Brett Merold (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-0
75%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
1.8
Surp
1.2
Diff
30:70
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Timothy Scroggs (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 32:68
R2
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Dakota Jones (Unknown)
50:50
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Ethan Davison (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R4
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Zachary Adams (Unknown)
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
0%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.8
Diff
30:70
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Bradley Hess (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 30:70
Round 2: Win vs Bradley Hughes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
30:70
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Charles Simmons (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 30:70
40:60
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Jake Smith (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
0% (0/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
50%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Hayslip (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
35:65
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Seman (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 35:65
Meta Fit
50% (1/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.