Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light at SAT 0900 Battle Hardened - SCG CON Columbus
Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 3-3-0
33%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.0
Surp
1.9
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Nathaniel Lansangan (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
35:65
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Travis McDaniel (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 35:65
40:60
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Jordan Raposo (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 42:58
Round 4: Win vs Bradley Hess (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
R5
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Crowley (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
45:55
R6 LL
Round 6: Loss vs Aaron Williams (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.7
Diff
45:55
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Logan McNeely (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 43:57
R2
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Cody Campbell (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
50:50
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Nicholas Tawab (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Austin Henry (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48
R5
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Jesse Hudak (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
40:60
R6 LL
Round 6: Loss vs Douglas Jones (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
20%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
2.4
Surp
2.0
Diff
35:65
R1 LL
Round 1: Loss vs Travis McDaniel (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 35:65
50:50
R2 LL
Round 2: Win vs Cedric DeRouchie (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 52:48
45:55
R3 LL
Round 3: Win vs Pierce Gumm (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 47:53
45:55
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Logan McNeely (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
20% (1/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Zen, Tamer of Purpose | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-2-1
60%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.1
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Cody Campbell (Nuu, Alluring Desire) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
45:55
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Williams (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 43:57
R3
R3 LL
Round 3: Draw vs Michael Lee (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
45:55
R4 LL
Round 4: Win vs Pierce Gumm (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 47:53
R5
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs Ren Fisk (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Nuu, Alluring Desire | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Draw |
| R4 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.2
Surp
1.2
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Michael Burke (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
40:60
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Zack Phillips (Aurora, Shooting Star) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Logan McNeely (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 43:57
35:65
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 35:65
R5
R5 LL
Round 5: Win vs Bryant Siders (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Aurora, Shooting Star | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Star of the Show | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity | 50% | Win |
dropped • 1-4-0
80%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.2
Diff
R1
R1 LL
Round 1: Win vs Jerry Neal (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
R2
R2 LL
Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Crowley (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
50:50
R3 LL
Round 3: Loss vs Salem Hunt (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R4 LL
Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Hayslip (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 47:53
R5
R5 LL
Round 5: Loss vs Bradley Hughes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Chane, Bound by Shadow | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.