SAT 0900 Battle Hardened - SCG CON Columbus - Lexi, Livewire (LL)

Lexi, Livewire

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Matthew Crowley

20th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.7

Diff

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Dakota Jones (Unknown)

50:50

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Nicholas Tawab (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R3 LL

Round 3: Loss vs Wyatt Goehring (Zen, Tamer of Purpose) - Expected: 43:57

R4 LL

Round 4: Win vs Patrick Ovaert (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs Ryan Shope (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 50:50

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R7 LL

Round 7: Loss vs isaac Stanley (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	LL	Zen, Tamer of Purpose	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	LL	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ren Fisk

31st • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.4

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R1 LL

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Lee (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 LL

Round 2: Win vs Jeffrey Hicks (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

20:80

R3 LL

Round 3: Win vs Phillip Pelley (Chane, Bound by Shadow) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Bray (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R5 LL

Round 5: Win vs Andrew Griesdorn (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 50:50

15:85

R6 LL

Round 6: Loss vs ANDREW WEBBER (Bravo, Star of the Show) - Expected: 15:85

R7 LL

Round 7: Win vs Logan Reinert (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	LL	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	LL	Chane, Bound by Shadow	20%	Win	✗	0.80	1.00
R4	LL	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	LL	Bravo, Star of the Show	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R7	LL	Prism, Awakener of Sol	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Michael Lee

dropped • 1-2-1

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 LL

Round 1: Win vs Ren Fisk (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 LL

Round 2: Loss vs Nathaniel Snyder (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R3 LL

Round 3: Draw vs Andrew Griesdorn (Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light) - Expected: 50:50

R4 LL

Round 4: Loss vs Jesse Hudak (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	LL	Lexi, Livewire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	LL	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	LL	Prism, Sculptor of Arc Light	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	LL	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.