Calling - Pro Tour: Baltimore - Uzuri, Switchblade (CC)

Uzuri, Switchblade

53 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Colin Swisher

10th • 10-3-0

77%

Meta

+3.3

Perf

6.6

Surp

4.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chad Emerick (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Logan Perry (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Camilo Herrera (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bryan Kong (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jake Wenger (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Taylor Crawford (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Yuki Lee Bender (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jeff Thompson (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs David Trinh (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Tee Thebeau (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Zach Bunn (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Emery Powell (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Bun Ar (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

77% (10/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.3 Wins (6.7 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.07
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Win	✗	0.78	0.34
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.25
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.26
R5	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.38
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.38
R8	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.53
R9	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.59
R10	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.54
R11	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R12	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.08
R13	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Paul White

69th • 8-5-0

77%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

5.9

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs James Tague (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tho Bui (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Franche Tan (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Michael Toryk (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs DYLAN MANGINI (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Peyton Sayasith (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Paul Naughton (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jacob Lantz (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Matt Muus (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Lucas Bannigan (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Brennan Tolnay (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Timothy Long (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68

30:70

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Adam Jessell (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

77% (10/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (6.6 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.08
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.16
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.16
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.22
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.54
R7	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.44
R9	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R10	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.79
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.60
R12	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R13	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Nathaniel Meserve

82nd • 8-5-0

62%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

6.4

Surp

4.2

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Chenjun Liu (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jason VanBuskirk (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ricky Perez (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Fernando Caprino (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Cory Lonas (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Joshua Korovesi (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Blake Lococo (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Gordon Koh Koh (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Yan Garito (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs John Romah (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Gregory Patellis (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Andrew Nguyen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Paul Naughton (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

62% (8/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.4 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.18
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.27
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.27
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.40
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.38
R8	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.01
R9	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R10	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.68
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R13	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.98

Daniel Rothhaar

dropped • 5-2-1

75%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matt MacLeod (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lee Conner (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Pascal Weiler (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 49:51

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jeremiah Gardner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 22:78

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Alec Myers (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs David Letourneau (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 55:45

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Draw vs Chenjun Liu (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.53
R7	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.75
R8	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Draw	✗	0.32	-

Ian Olson

dropped • 5-2-1

88%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Blake Godenzi (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jesus Montijo (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Timothy Long (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Aria How (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Draw vs Christopher Saldana (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Aidan Kwasneski (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Sasha Lang (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Tanya Wunder (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.12
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.18
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Draw	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.64
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.65
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Chris Ray

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nathaniel Snyder (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Robert Vruwink (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dustin LaFlamme (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Franche Tan (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Anthony Gascon (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Matthew Cudney (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Anthony DT Zichella (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Sean Moyer (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.22
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.39
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.35
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.46
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.53
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Dave Cordeiro

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.1

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Johnny Lam (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Luke Magnuson (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Nguyen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Matthew Holinaty (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Bastien Le Guen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 22:78

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Chris Rowland (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.29
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.56
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.71

Joseph Scalco

dropped • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.8

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Martin Hechtberger (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 22:78

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Gregory Price (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Anthony Cicchinelli (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nick Allen (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 51:49

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Randall Suliga (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

20:80

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kyle Thiele (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 22:78

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Lee Kimball (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jesus Garcia Gomez-Valades (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.40
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R5	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.03
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.62
R8	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Luke Magnuson

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kyle Meserve (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Derek Chiu (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dave Cordeiro (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Lynch (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 22:78

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Donald Kell (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs David Sitrick (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Felipe Costa Batista (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Kyle Richards (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.09
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.41
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.53
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.88

Patrick Shaw

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs William Euson (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs John Romah (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Max Dieckmann (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Fabio Rego (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Robert Postlewaite (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Randall Suliga (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Lee Maring (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.33
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R6	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.23
R7	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R8	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.88

Steven Rodriguez

dropped • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chris Rowland (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Steven Nemeth (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chris Fazio (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jonathan Wyatt (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sean Davis (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Steven Caraher (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Adam Tran (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Rafaelo "Ruffy" Sarmiento (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.09
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.88
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.02
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

The Better Johnson

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Piotr Krzempek (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ian Smith (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 51:49

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Philip Parker (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 29:71

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Zack Phillips (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Fernando Caprino (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Michael Ribar (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Fuzzy Delp (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jesse Harper (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.11
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.24
R3	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.82
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.79
R7	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.85
R8	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Carter Barton

dropped • 4-4-0

38%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.6

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Riddle (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 22:78

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Christopher Higashi (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 51:49

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jeffery Fredrickson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 22:78

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Noah Geiger (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Fay (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Robert Postlewaite (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Sebastian Spicher (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.37
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R5	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R7	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.44
R8	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Cooper Pemelton

dropped • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs BRENT ANDERSON (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sean Biava (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mara Richard (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Chase Reiser (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs James Wray (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Patrick Yoder (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Justin Sybrandt (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

20:80

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Phillip Manwaring (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.28
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.37
R5	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R8	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

Daniel Wolff

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

4.6

Surp

2.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chad McKittrick (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Brandon Bowden (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Brian McLachlin (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Paul Naughton (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sam OByrne (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Bartosz Dominiak (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Andrew Wachter (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Fabio Rego (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.09
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Win	✗	0.78	0.55
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.39
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.44
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Ethan Mitchell

dropped • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Arkadiusz "Rasaad" Sioda (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 49:51

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Haik Voskerchian (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Davila (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Tessa Myers (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Michael Tucci (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Dyllon Dietz (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 29:71

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Ben Sharrin (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 22:78

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Patrick Nelson (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.39
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R8	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.98

Justin Hill

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jeff Thompson (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kaiser Tan (Unknown)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs George Panageotou (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alexander Hempelmann (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nick Bova (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Melissa Steinman (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Chris Legg (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 22:78

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Michael McDowell (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.27
R4	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.56
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.71

Tony Mapelli

dropped • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bryce Johnson (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Kissel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Scott Egan (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Chenjun Liu (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Sage Husanu (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Sean Fox (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Cole Pellatt (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Lucas Molho (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.27
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R5	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.96
R6	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.23
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Will Rea

dropped • 4-4-0

38%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.7

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Trenton McBride (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Edward Knight (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Airton dos Santos Junior (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 22:78

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kenny Thai (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs James Cæruleus Silver (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Chris Rowland (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs westley nottingham (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Walker Stephens (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.44
R5	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.03
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.62
R8	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.64

William Pearlman

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.4

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michael Fay (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Paul Fortin (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Sean Davis (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Raj Parikh (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Aliasgar Dedanwala (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Sabastian Chizhik (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 55:45

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Carl Norman (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.21
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.33
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.64
R7	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Michael McDermott

dropped • 3-4-1

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.6

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mathew Frye (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 22:78

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Kyle Thiele (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 22:78

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Donovan Wilcox (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Cory Lonas (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Aidan Kwasneski (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Chase Reiser (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jared Wyce (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Chad McKittrick (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Draw	✗	0.22	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.33
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.56
R7	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Ethan Kirychuk

dropped • 3-5-0

62%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs nicklas starland (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 29:71

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Paul Deegan (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 22:78

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matt Mills (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Shafer (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Brandon Datwyler (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Joseph Bowers (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Airton dos Santos Junior (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 22:78

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Katie Koslosky (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.55
R6	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Joshua Levy

dropped • 3-5-0

75%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Vlastimil Martinek Jr. (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony DT Zichella (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Douglas Maclure (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Felipe Costa Batista (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Bartosz Dominiak (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Michael Tucci (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Sean Fox (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Brian McLachlin (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R8	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Kevin Guinn

dropped • 3-5-0

88%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eli Teed (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mara Richard (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Spencer Freeman (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ian Shaffer (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs George Panageotou (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Nicholas Hoover (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Manuel Rosario (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Lindsey Thiele (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.19
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.44
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Matt Mills

dropped • 3-5-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

4.4

Surp

2.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tristan Hanson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Thaminda Edirisooriya (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ethan Kirychuk (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zach Dietz (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Manuel Rosario (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Justin Balanca-Hawkes (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Brandon Bowden (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Quinn Wongkew (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.44
R6	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Win	✗	0.78	1.91
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Charles Poe

dropped • 2-6-0

88%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

4.2

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Toryk (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ben Hannan (Unknown)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nathan Gardner (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kolbrun Palsdottir (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 29:71

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Dayna Hagewood (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Katie Koslosky (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Daniel Link (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Joseph Bowers

dropped • 2-6-0

75%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

3.7

Surp

0.5

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lucas Codato Antonio Silva (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Wolfe (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 55:45

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Shane Blake (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 22:78

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Connor Talty (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Eric Holmes (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ethan Kirychuk (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Charles Simmons (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Ryan Nenninger (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.11
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.44
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R6	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R8	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Gabriel Marengo

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Cameron Boutot (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jordan Biggs (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dakota Cook (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Erick Lofton (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 55:45

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Addison Hudson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Shing Tsang (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Ren Fisk (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.70
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.49
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Win	✗	0.78	1.56
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.73
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Aaron Guy

dropped • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Riley Lont (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Adam Weaver (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Derek Copp (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sean Biava (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Chris Rowland (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Scott Egan (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Steven Nemeth (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.25
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.51
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Patrick Yoder

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ben Cook (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Porter Jones (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs John Colvin (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 49:51

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Adam Jessell (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Cooper Pemelton (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Adam Fronsee (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.33
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.30
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R6	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Hayley Neighbors

dropped • 3-2-1

83%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.1

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sean Moyer (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Jeremy Scruggs (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Devon Conn (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 55:45

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Adam Green (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kevin Canales (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.57
R5	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.37
R6	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Paul Fortin

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs William Pearlman (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Micah Perino (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Andre Belote (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 22:78

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Menion Croll (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Rob Sheridan (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.82
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R5	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.81
R6	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Jose Santos martinez

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Keegan Wolohan (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs nicolas Jamoulle (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 22:78

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matt Davey (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Collins (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Travis Reeder (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.55
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Michael Tucci

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rodrigo Martinez (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 22:78

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Snyder (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joseph Cicchini (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alex Yun (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ethan Mitchell (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Joshua Levy (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.33
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Taylor Nifong

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Goodkin (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs James Swain (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brandon Flores (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Holden Isaacs (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Shane Martin (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kyler Dustin (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.15
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.47
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R6	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Tyler Kaminskie

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.9

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Paulo Fernandes (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Zachary Sweigart (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rafaelo "Ruffy" Sarmiento (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Darick Oswalt (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nick Allen (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Cory Lonas (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.22
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Walter Snowden

dropped • 1-5-0

50%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Louis Solymos (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Derek Chiu (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Greg Mitchell (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tommy Golightly (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jeff Okrasinski (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Philippe Paquin

dropped • 2-2-1

60%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Allison Oram (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tyler Brotton (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Rodrigo Martinez (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 22:78

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Michael Pawlak (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 51:49

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jonas Stoberock (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Draw	✗	0.22	-
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.78
R5	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

James Wray

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bryce Kesterson (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Logan Petersen (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alexander Karlson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Wolohan (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 22:78

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Cooper Pemelton (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.18
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.42
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R5	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jonathan Wyatt

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jason Price II (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Camilo Herrera (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 47:53

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Claire Stanfield (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Steven Rodriguez (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Bryce Henschel (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.18
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.92
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

Noah Geiger

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Maciej Chmielewski (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Cardoza (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 22:78

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Long Dao (Unknown)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kenneth Yan (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Carter Barton (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.57
R5	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Riley Lont

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Aaron Guy (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jared Wyce (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs ANDREW WEBBER (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Donald Kell (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Brandon Bowden (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.34
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Win	✗	0.78	2.19

Darius Hambleton

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Leo Shea (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 22:78

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jeff Okrasinski (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Cusick (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brandon Crawford (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Popowich (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.51
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Adam Cook

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.9

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Grant Kern (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 55:45

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Leo Shea (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Cooper Templeton (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Win	✗	0.78	1.64
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

Darick Oswalt

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Shane Blake (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 22:78

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Justin Salmon (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ashley Babiarz (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tyler Kaminskie (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.77
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Evan McGrew

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gary White (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 22:78

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jesse Machusak (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 22:78

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gerald Camangon (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brett Merold (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Anthony Domalakes

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Will Reinhardt (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs James Cæruleus Silver (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mark sipics (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Link (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

brynn nieboer

dropped • 0-2-1

33%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Patrick Nelson (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 51:49

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marcus Brown (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Alek Idol (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Draw	✗	0.32	-

Derek Zellner

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Peyton Sayasith (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nigel Wunder (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Caleb Nelson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Devin Rattenni

dropped • 0-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lee Kimball (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan AuCoin (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sam (Real) Yuen (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Tracy Reeves

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Max Dieckmann (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 32:68

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bryce Johnson (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tanner DeMarco (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Kristopher Roache

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Erik Johnson (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Caleb Womack (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Zach Reinschreiber

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bastien Le Guen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 22:78

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Chad Wischnewsky (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.