Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn at Calling - Pro Tour: Baltimore
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
4 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 3-5-0
88%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
3.8
Surp
2.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Seth Penner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 25:75
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Michael Collins (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Justin Balanca-Hawkes (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Zackary Whitt (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Chad Allred (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Alex Yun (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Eric Gorski (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
88% (7/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
dropped • 2-6-0
88%
Meta
-1.8
Perf
3.8
Surp
0.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Higashi (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Quinn Toulouse (Unknown)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Kevin Canales (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 50:50
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Eric Holmes (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 28:72
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jeffrey Lang (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Felipe Costa Batista (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Erick Lofton (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Gabriel Rasicot (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
88% (7/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
100%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
3.0
Surp
0.5
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Colin Ross (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jonathan Wyatt (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Colin Swisher (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ovas Siddiqui (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Sam Sutherland (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Halstad (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (6/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-5-0
80%
Meta
-2.2
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs John Romah (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Aidan Kwasneski (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Catherine Powell (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Davila (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jesse Shaw (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Bravo, Showstopper | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.