Viserai, Rune Blood at Calling Antwerp 2023

Viserai, Rune Blood

36 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Julia Happel

dropped • 6-4-0

30%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.7

Surp

2.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lars Richter (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 45:55

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matěj Stejskal (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dimitris Melissinos (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Paul van Gijssel (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Niklas Astner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Patrik Koller (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Nicolas Scandalis (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Stefano Meoni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Lukasz Bigos (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

30% (3/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.12
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.39
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.20
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.33
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.73
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.46
R8	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R10	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Dean Ebelshäuser

dropped • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.7

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rob van der Burgh (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs GDPR-DEL-10/23/24-09:25:01 GDPR-DEL-10/23/24-09:25:01 (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Arlerand Ngan (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 46:54

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kamil Kirstein (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Olivier HENRY (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Dawid Mrówczyński (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Stijn Borkelmans (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Robbert Valkeneers (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.08
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.42
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R6	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.01
R8	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.66

Italo Molina

dropped • 5-3-0

25%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andy Polderman (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Rikard Wallström (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michal Cwik (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Łukasz Mirek (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Aidan Wall (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Michael Feng (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Viet Pham (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74

25:75

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Thorbjørn Lind Jensen (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

Meta Fit

25% (2/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.15
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.16
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.51
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.95

Jan Eid

dropped • 5-3-0

38%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.9

Surp

4.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tim McCarthy (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lori Vanderhulst (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Richard Frost (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ian Holland (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Arthur Trehet (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Adrián Marín (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Mark Johnson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74

25:75

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Alberto Di Blasi (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.25
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.57
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.41
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.46
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.95

Jonas Benzarti

dropped • 5-3-0

38%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs (Zamun) Juan Eduardo Corbalan Duzman (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jerome Jambert (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Cohen (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sean Knowelden (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Daniele Milani (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs James Adams (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Michael Feng (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Sebastian Linn (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.08
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.17
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.43
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.61
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R6	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.03
R7	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Mikko Airaksinen

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs James Brookes (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Frederic Bernard (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Lorenzo Silvestri (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kevin Zänker (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Frederic Fuessmann (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 45:55

25:75

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Charly Bizard (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R6	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.71
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.01
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Rafael Boog

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.1

Surp

2.0

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Luca Pellegrino (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rob Catton (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Krzysztof Rybczyński (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Claudio Paradiso (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Nicolas Molinari (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Giulio Monaco (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Richard Carr (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.08
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.31
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.41
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.58
R8	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Renzo Schietgat

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.1

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gary White (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs David Chirulescu (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jakub Derda (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michal Cwik (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Niels Vos (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Kevin Sossenheimer (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Simon Daelemans (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37

25:75

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs GDPR-DEL-07/12/24-11:23:05 GDPR-DEL-07/12/24-11:23:05 (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.08
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.35
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.41
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.58
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Ville Schalin

dropped • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.4

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Florian Vanclaire (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Marie-Louise Gerntrup (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs (Zamun) Juan Eduardo Corbalan Duzman (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jean Luka Zorko (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Emil Haulund Kjeldsen (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Patrick Jud (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs nino Zimmermann (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.19
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.25
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R8	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.95

Konstantinos Paltoglou

dropped • 4-4-0

12%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.2

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aubin Jean (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Suciu Andrei (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tim McCarthy (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 40:60

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matúš Martinko (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Paul Dollé (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Stefano Berian (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Stefano Meoni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53

25:75

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Fred Bird (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

12% (1/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.10
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.28
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.98
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.86
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Lorenzo Silvestri

dropped • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jeremy Miller (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 52:48

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Paul Dollé (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ralph Schlauri (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mikko Airaksinen (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Frederic Bernard (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Nathan Corbyn (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Nica Roth (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74

25:75

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Hendrik Wytze Kluitenberg (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.12
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.25
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.46
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Marc Alexandre

dropped • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs monnier jason (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Julian Boelen (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dylan Thompson (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Savinien Castel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tony Colonna-Cesari (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 31:69

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Stijn Audenaert (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Patrick Alain Franco (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs rogier De wever (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.08
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R8	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.66

Thomas De Wolf

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Oleg Zabalujev (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kevin Sossenheimer (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rob Thoen (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Niklas Bengtsson (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lukáš Barborik (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Rokas Jaskevičius (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Colin Ragas (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs damien herlin (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.10
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R5	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.63
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.95

Frederic Bernard

dropped • 3-5-0

88%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthias Sanchez (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Jentzsch (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mikko Airaksinen (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Koos Van den Berg (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lorenzo Silvestri (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Laurens Overgaauw (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Xiaoliang Yang (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Julen Olazcuaga (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.25
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R7	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R8	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.66

Colin Ragas

dropped • 2-6-0

38%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Suciu Andrei (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Björn DHOOGHE (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tom Simon (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 45:55

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Martin Andreasson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Albrecht Constantin (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 51:49

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Mitch Malavolta (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Thomas De Wolf (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Vladislovas Kofyrinas (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.30
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R5	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.46
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Alex Chițu

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mikko Airaksinen (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Wallner (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Stevie Van Overtveldt (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Arthur Trehet (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ville Schalin (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Nils Klaper (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Benjamin Brüssau (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.56
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.38
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Dimi Van Edom

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.7

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrei Joghiu (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mark Henderson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel VandenBurg (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Connor McGrath (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Josef Doležal (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Logan Bolam (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Mariusz Wojciechowski (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.52
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.53
R6	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.63
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Mariusz Wojciechowski

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bidinger Mikael (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Joris Borkelmans (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs George Jones (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jeremy Miller (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Stijn Audenaert (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jose Alves (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Dimi Van Edom (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.19
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.54
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mateusz Drabent

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Cayle Mccreath (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Anthony Achin (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Saarela (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Christian Uffelmann (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Bidinger Mikael (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jakub "Lemur" Siedlecki (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.27
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.42
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.60
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Christian Poffet

dropped • 2-5-0

29%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.2

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alexandre Vretman (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Arran Lawrenson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Claire Lannaud (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs David Jentzsch (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Matthias Zeiziger (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tomas Liutvinas (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Antonio Tacchella (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.79
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R7	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.37

Laurent Lecomte

dropped • 2-5-0

14%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Clément CASTAGLIOLA (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Felix N (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthias Sanchez (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 46:54

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kevin Faut (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Frank Buechy (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Daniel VandenBurg (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Alexej Frikel (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

14% (1/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.39
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R5	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.04
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Stijn Audenaert

dropped • 2-5-0

86%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

3.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Davide Abis (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Niklas Bengtsson (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Klaus Poulsen (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 67:33

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Xiaoliang Yang (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Mariusz Wojciechowski (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Marc Alexandre (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jerome Jambert (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.25
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.44
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Aidan Wall

dropped • 3-3-0

17%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alwart Nijveld (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Quinten de Jongh (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jay Donaldson (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bruno Mendes (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Italo Molina (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kevin Faut (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.20
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.61
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.81
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Lori Vanderhulst

dropped • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Marcel Harz (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jan Eid (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Osama MacDonald (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Frederic Fuessmann (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jay Donaldson (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 43:57

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Lucas Saillour (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.98
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.01
R6	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Goran Lovric

dropped • 2-4-0

17%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tomasz Domagalski (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 46:54

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Albert Schütt (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Patryk Wasielewski (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Bart Horré (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 31:69

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Philip van Donselaar (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Eric Bun (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.19
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.98
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R6	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Lucas Michel

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.6

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs András 'Kaptain' Kovács (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Laurent LECOMTE (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nicolas Ziegler (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lorenzo Tarateta (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 51:49

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kevin Pennec (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tuomas Lampinen (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.32
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Julen Olazcuaga (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Cédric Florent (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Robin Lesage (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Lars Richter (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Davide Abis (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jeremie Pohl (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.11
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.77
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Rafael Salsa

dropped • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tomas Liutvinas (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Brüssau (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tim Sofsky (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Zdeněk Matura (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 31:69

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tess van Dartel (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Marco Guignard (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.33
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.33
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R5	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Erik Baalhuis

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Toon Vertommen (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kevin Reich (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Christoph Jablonowski (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Therssen Hugo (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sébastien Spilliaert (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.26
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.97
R5	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Florin Mazilu

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rokas Jaskevičius (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Stefaan Morbee (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas van Dijk (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Benjamin Van Ballaert (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Rob Catton (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.17
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.45
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Joakim Gustafsson

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.7

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bram bertens (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Matúš Martinko (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Scott "HowlingMines" Mines (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Javier Querol (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Bence Vereszki (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.13
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.56
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Rasmus Møller

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.7

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Glenn Van Roey (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Florian Kirsch (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Bertrand Guillot (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Paul Lehmann (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Saillour (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.31
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.40
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Roger Braun

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Anthony Achin (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Claudio Paradiso (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Enrico José Zürcher (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Rene Skyggebjerg (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Daniel Ipakchian (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.19
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.53
R5	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Stijn Ginneberge

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Aurélien Burck (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Trossing (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rikard Wallström (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Antonio Tagliareni (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Mark Henderson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.19
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.38
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Daniel Dolejš

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.6

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dan Stoian (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Shahin Ghorbani azad (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 39:61

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Efri den Teuling (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 58:42

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nicolas Pilven (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.58
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Dennis Krstic

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lorenzo Miele (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 26:74

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Julen Olazcuaga (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Thierry Entringer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joe Potter (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.83
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.