Calling Antwerp 2023 - Iyslander, Stormbind (CC)

Iyslander, Stormbind

14 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Wouter Ouwehand

12th • 10-3-0

77%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

5.8

Surp

3.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Laura Sterkenburg (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Simon Daelemans (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Giulio Monaco (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Adrián Marín (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Floris van Asch (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 63:37

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs nino Zimmermann (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 71:29

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Nils Klaper (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Michael Feng (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Pablo Pintor (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Cayle Mccreath (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 61:39

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Quinten de Jongh (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Stefano Meoni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Paul van Gijssel (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

77% (10/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (7.3 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

5.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.05
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.18
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.45
R5	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.26
R6	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.23
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.48
R8	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.42
R9	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R10	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.54
R11	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.57
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R13	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.68

Etienne BARIOULET

49th • 8-5-0

69%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

5.6

Surp

2.3

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Javier Querol (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Yong Jin Jang (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Bob De jong (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 63:37

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs José Guimarães (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ilias Karamanis (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Stevie Van Overtveldt (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Natalia Berger (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Thomas van den Berg (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs João Gomes (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs George Rodger (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 66:34

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs George Melissakis (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Jamie Faulkner (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

60:40

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Cayle Mccreath (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

69% (9/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (7.1 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.11
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.10
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.15
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.26
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R7	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.37
R8	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.42
R9	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.47
R10	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.46
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R12	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R13	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Joris Verhelst

dropped • 5-2-1

38%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Collett (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 66:34

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Draw vs Ana Ristov (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Bram bertens (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Maciej Kawończyk (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Antonio Tagliareni (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Fred Bird (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Arthur Trehet (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Kevin Reich (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.08
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Draw	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.45
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.05
R8	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.20

Isaac Rancic

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.6

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jakub Tepper (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Markus Lingslebe (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Adam Matecki (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Samuel Pihour (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 66:34

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Rokas Jaskevičius (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 61:39

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Błażej Gierszon (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Robert Cuellari (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Mirko Macchia (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.30
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.44
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.09
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.76
R8	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.01

Maciej Kawończyk

dropped • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.3

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Stefan Stäger (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 71:29

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Robin Lesage (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Donovan van Beek (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Joris Verhelst (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Benjy Heyda (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Stefano Meoni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Szymon Wrzesień-Kwiatkowski (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Tony Colonna-Cesari (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.06
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.91
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.05
R8	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Bart Horré

dropped • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Melvin van Gijn (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 63:37

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs George Melissakis (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Søren Madsen (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 63:37

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Goran Lovric (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 69:31

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Quinten de Jongh (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Billy van Zaal (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Clément CASTAGLIOLA (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Marco Guignard (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (4.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.08
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.25
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.27
R5	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R8	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.68

Tony Colonna-Cesari

dropped • 4-4-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.9

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alberto Di Blasi (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Martin Andreasson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ruben Van Dessel (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Yannick Machiels (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Marc Alexandre (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 69:31

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tiago Rodrigues (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs David Rotter (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Maciej Kawończyk (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.36
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.34
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.34
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R7	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Wojciech Andrusewicz

dropped • 3-5-0

88%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

4.2

Surp

1.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Merijn Poorthuis (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tomasz Domagalski (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Antonio Tacchella (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Christoph van Wershofen (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Nicolas Pilven (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tess van Dartel (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Bartosz Dominiak (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Xiaoliang Yang (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.25
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.44
R5	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R7	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R8	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Zdeněk Matura

dropped • 3-5-0

62%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Christopher YOUNES (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 61:39

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Donovan van Beek (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Quinn Durlston-Powell (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 82:18

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Rafael Salsa (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 69:31

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sven Tscheppainz (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Nicolas BROSSE (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Adrián Marín (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.09
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.11
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.27
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Luigi Fontana

dropped • 2-6-0

50%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joaquim Ballot (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Koos Van den Berg (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Tuck (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Niklas Astner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs GDPR-DEL-07/12/24-11:23:05 GDPR-DEL-07/12/24-11:23:05 (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ivan Tiozzo Pagio (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Julien Risser (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Tomas Liutvinas (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.55
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Lucas Saillour

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Pablo Tobías (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ania Grudnowska (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 66:34

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Stefan Karlsson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

80:20

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Lukáš Barborik (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 82:18

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Rasmus Møller (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Lori Vanderhulst (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 69:31

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Sven Tscheppainz (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.17
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.16
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.39
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.47
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Olivier Fraiture

dropped • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Michał Sierszulski (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Grégory Lefebvre (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mark Henderson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Awend Dozky (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Wallner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kevin Becker (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.15
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.80
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.00
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Pedro C. Silva

dropped • 2-2-1

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tom Tydecks (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Hrvoje Hedžet (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Tadhg Treacy (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jay Donaldson (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Cristian-Andrei Cioban (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	45%	Draw	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.01

Nicolas Pilven

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.0

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Vincent Weinzierl (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bartłomiej Chrobak (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kogul Kathiravelu (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 55:45

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Dolejš (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Wojciech Andrusewicz (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.52
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.44
R5	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.