Kano, Dracai of Aether at Calling Antwerp 2023

Kano, Dracai of Aether

15 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Tim McCarthy

18th • 10-3-0

46%

Meta

+3.8

Perf

6.4

Surp

5.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jan Eid (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Eric Bun (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Konstantinos Paltoglou (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mathieu Gomez (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Yorgos Samaras (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Laurin Niehues (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 47:53

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Bob De jong (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Mateusz Jasiński (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Oliver Spapens (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Hubert Pszczółkowski (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Cayle Mccreath (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 69:31

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Bartosz Kosmacz (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R13 CC

Round 13: Win vs Maximilian Klein (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

46% (6/13 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.8 Wins (6.2 expected, 10 actual)

Surprise

6.4 total deviation

Difficulty

5.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.06
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.17
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.17
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.40
R5	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.50
R7	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	25%	Win	✗	0.73	1.03
R8	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.64
R9	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R10	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R11	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.45
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.21
R13	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.95

Sebastian Spicher

dropped • 5-3-0

38%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tudor Serban (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Christel David (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jo Yana (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daniel Collett (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Javier Querol (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Yegor Borshch (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 65:35

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Vincent Fasquel (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Mark Warren (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.82
R6	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.46
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.62
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.14

VALENTIN MARIGNAC

dropped • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.9

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Sebastian Kleiner (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 65:35

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Küenzi (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniele Milani (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ian Zhang (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Wim Haeck (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Pablo Tobías (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Tobias Reincke (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Nicolas BROSSE (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.08
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.18
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.82
R6	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.83
R8	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.05

Maximilian Schmidt

dropped • 4-4-0

25%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Savinien Castel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthias Zeiziger (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rokas Jaskevičius (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 69:31

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Emil Haulund Kjeldsen (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 69:31

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Hrvoje Hedžet (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Marcel Harz (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Sebastiaan Knetsch (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jack Fanning (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

25% (2/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.29
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.20
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.26
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.98
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Robert Cuellari

dropped • 3-5-0

62%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.1

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bertrand Guillot (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sebastian Fauth (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Thorsten Drescher (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Toon Vertommen (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mateusz Sass (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Eric Nguyễn (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Isaac Rancic (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Lorenzo Bonaga (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.24
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.23
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.59
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Sam Cornelis

dropped • 2-6-0

50%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

3.9

Surp

0.9

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jean Luka Zorko (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kevin Bertram (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Leonard Kaarls (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Viliam Kubik (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Bartłomiej Chrobak (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Alexandre Vretman (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.23
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.66
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Liam Canning

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Willem Van Hout (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jack Canty (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kenni Pedersen (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Feng (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Aleksander Zabłocki (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jakub "Lemur" Siedlecki (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Nolwenn Le guer (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.15
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.41
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.94
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.13
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Patryk "Kaladin" Kruczkowski

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kevin Claes (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Stefano Berian (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kristof Andric (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Francesco Giorgio (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Benjamin Van Ballaert (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jack Fanning (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.22
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.20
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.41
R5	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Can Gani Cevik

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Francesco Giorgio (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs André Cardoso (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs simon haesaerts (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 65:35

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alessandro Tassini (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kevin Lerens (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.46
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.37
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Ciaran Harrigan

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tom Simon (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Osama MacDonald (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mohamed El Fardi (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Josef Doležal (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Nica Roth (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.57
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.76
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Dennis Canaki

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.5

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Brian Cornillie (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Vasilis Kirlis (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nathan Hills (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matteo Favretto (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Rob van der Burgh (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.12
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.41
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Hoho Li

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yannick Machiels (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Patrick Paitz (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Scherer (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Juha Saarnilampi (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Clément CASTAGLIOLA (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.19
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.24
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Paweł Rozynek

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ruben Van Dessel (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Daniele Milani (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kamil Gwiazda (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Valentino Odorjan (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Lukasz Ziemba (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.22
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.76
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Joachim Hendriksen

dropped • 1-4-0

20%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bartłomiej Chrobak (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Arran Lawrenson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Martin Fortuin (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Fabio Brambilla (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.21
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Kristian Scheibe

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Richard Schröder (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 61:39

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bob De jong (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 27:73

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Antonio Tagliareni (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sven Pavlek (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.18
R2	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.