Dorinthea Ironsong at Calling Antwerp 2023 — FaB-Results

Dorinthea Ironsong

Dorinthea Ironsong

17 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

dropped • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.6

Diff

Lexi, Livewire

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs May Made (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Lexi, Livewire

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Enrique Boada (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 37:63

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Vasilis Kirlis (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Davide Abis (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 48:52

Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Fabio Stüber (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 48:52

Viserai, Rune Blood

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Alex Chițu (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 46:54

Iyslander, Stormbind

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Wouter Ouwehand (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 50:50

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Savinien Castel (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.18
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.53
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.66
R6	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.84
R7	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

dropped • 4-4-0

25%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.1

Surp

3.7

Diff

Lexi, Livewire

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs GDPR-DEL-01/04/24-08:01:40 GDPR-DEL-01/04/24-08:01:40 (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 37:63

Viserai, Rune Blood

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Frederic Bernard (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 46:54

Dorinthea Ironsong

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lorenzo Bonaga (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Viserai, Rune Blood

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Christian Poffet (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 46:54

Dromai, Ash Artist

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Hugo Jobe (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

Bravo, Showstopper

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Laura Sterkenburg (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

Lexi, Livewire

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Rafal Tarnowski (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Lexi, Livewire

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Andrew Rayner (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

25% (2/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.56
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	30%	Win	✗	0.70	1.09
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.26
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Francesco Lorenzi

dropped • 4-4-0

12%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

3.4

Diff

Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Piotr Chudobinski (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 20:80

Uzuri, Switchblade

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sebastian Kleiner (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 43:57

Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Darvydas Čepukaitis (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 20:80

Katsu, the Wanderer

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs René De Zutter (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 45:55

Briar, Warden of Thorns

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs John Kitsos (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 52:48

Lexi, Livewire

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Peter Stürmer (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Dromai, Ash Artist

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Dan Stoian (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 30:70

Katsu, the Wanderer

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Bruno Mendes (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

12% (1/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.57
R5	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.59
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.08
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R8	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.14

dropped • 4-4-0

25%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

4.1

Surp

4.4

Diff

Briar, Warden of Thorns

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mikey Dwyer (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 52:48

Lexi, Livewire

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Krister Lindroos (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 37:63

Dorinthea Ironsong

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs David Jentzsch (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Lexi, Livewire

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs May Made (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Rene Farwer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60

Katsu, the Wanderer

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Michał Sierszulski (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 45:55

Lexi, Livewire

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Giovanni Korsten (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 37:63

Kano, Dracai of Aether

20:80

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Robert Cuellari (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

Meta Fit

25% (2/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.72
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.85
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R8	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	20%	Win	✗	0.81	2.42

Lorenzo Tarateta

dropped • 4-4-0

38%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.3

Diff

Lexi, Livewire

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Tuck (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 37:63

Bravo, Showstopper

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lukasz Kaczynski (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

Lexi, Livewire

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Martin Fortuin (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Viserai, Rune Blood

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Lucas Michel (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 46:54

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Suciu Andrei (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60

Briar, Warden of Thorns

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Fuad Omar (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 52:48

Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jean Luka Zorko (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 48:52

Katsu, the Wanderer

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Sean Knowelden (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.54
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.56
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.93
R8	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Vincent Fasquel

dropped • 3-5-0

50%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.0

Diff

Lexi, Livewire

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Aleksander Zabłocki (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 37:63

Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Eva Wollny (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 48:52

Bravo, Showstopper

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Bence Vereszki (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs René Schep (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 20:80

Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity

20:80

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Shahin Ghorbani azad (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

Fai, Rising Rebellion

75:25

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Adrien Saussey (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 75:25

Kano, Dracai of Aether

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Sebastian Spicher (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 19:81

Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs David Rotter (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.26
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R5	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	20%	Win	✗	0.80	1.47
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.31
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R8	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

dropped • 2-4-0

17%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

Bravo, Showstopper

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Billy van Zaal (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

Dromai, Ash Artist

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nicolas Scandalis (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 30:70

Lexi, Livewire

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jose Alves (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 37:63

Lexi, Livewire

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Vincent PROUM (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 37:63

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Björn Debremaeker (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jo Yana (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.32

Albrecht Constantin

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Florian Huepper (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60

Dromai, Ash Artist

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bram bertens (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 30:70

Rhinar, Reckless Rampage

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Julien Erdreich (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 62:38

Lexi, Livewire

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Brent Van de Staey (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 37:63

Viserai, Rune Blood

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Colin Ragas (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.41
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R5	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.12

Benjamin Küenzi

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

Katsu, the Wanderer

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kogul Kathiravelu (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 45:55

Kano, Dracai of Aether

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs VALENTIN MARIGNAC (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 19:81

Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Fedir Kokhan (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 20:80

Fai, Rising Rebellion

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ania Grudnowska (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 75:25

Lexi, Livewire

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Krister Lindroos (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.23
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R3	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.33
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

dropped • 2-3-0

0%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.7

Diff

Katsu, the Wanderer

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tomasz Żelazko (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 45:55

Uzuri, Switchblade

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Leonard Kaarls (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 43:57

Dromai, Ash Artist

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jack Fanning (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 30:70

Dromai, Ash Artist

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Rob van der Burgh (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 30:70

Uzuri, Switchblade

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Aurélien Burck (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

0% (0/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.49
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	30%	Loss	✗	0.30	-
R5	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.22

Richard Schröder

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.7

Diff

Kano, Dracai of Aether

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kristian Scheibe (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 19:81

Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kurt Vooys (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 20:80

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

R3

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ewout De Leeuw (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Darian Papke (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

Lexi, Livewire

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs David Wallner (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.06
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

dropped • 1-3-1

20%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.7

Diff

Lexi, Livewire

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Hubert Pszczółkowski (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 37:63

Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Wojciech Ruciński (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 20:80

Viserai, Rune Blood

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Christian Poffet (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 46:54

Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs René Rost (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 48:52

Lexi, Livewire

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs May Made (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.67
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Draw	✓	0.48	-
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

dropped • 1-3-1

20%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.2

Diff

Levia, Shadowborn Abomination

R1

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nicolas Ziegler (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Lexi, Livewire

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Aleksander Zabłocki (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 37:63

Viserai, Rune Blood

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mateusz Drabent (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 46:54

Uzuri, Switchblade

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Stefan Stäger (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 43:57

Lexi, Livewire

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kevin Wiercx (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	45%	Draw	✗	0.43	-
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

dropped • 1-3-1

40%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.4

Diff

Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity

20:80

R1 CC

Round 1: Draw vs Mohamed El Fardi (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 20:80

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

R2

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Louis Van Keymeulen (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tino Südmeyer (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 48:52

Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Max Schmidt (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 20:80

Katsu, the Wanderer

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Robson Dechamps (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	20%	Draw	✗	0.20	-
R2	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Pierre Canali (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 48:52

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tomasz Buda (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60

Uzuri, Switchblade

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Andreas Björnsson (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 43:57

Uzuri, Switchblade

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Patrick Paitz (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 43:57

Bravo, Showstopper

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Laurens Overgaauw (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.73
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nam Khoa Nguyen

dropped • 1-3-0

0%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.4

Diff

Lexi, Livewire

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Peter Markovič (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity

20:80

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Nijssen (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 20:80

Lexi, Livewire

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Antoine Trannoy (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 37:63

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sergio Sanz Guerrero (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.36
R2	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Vincent Vernyns

dropped • 0-2-0

0%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

Lexi, Livewire

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mauro Annetta (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 37:63

Uzuri, Switchblade

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Christopher Bizau (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.