Calling Antwerp 2023 - Riptide, Lurker of the Deep (CC)

Riptide, Lurker of the Deep

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jasper de Riet

dropped • 3-5-0

38%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.7

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Henrik Montin (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Philipp Kresse (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 36:64

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tomas Liutvinas (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jas Tin Lim (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Sebastian Feick (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 32:68

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jakub Grefling (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Remi Gazquez (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Gheorghe Catalin (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.61
R4	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.59
R7	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R8	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.46

Ewout De Leeuw

dropped • 2-5-1

38%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ronja Kieffer (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tim Sofsky (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Richard Schröder (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Gregory Graumer (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Draw vs Leonard Kaarls (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 37:63

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Javier Querol (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 32:68

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jakub Grefling (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 58:42

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Aaron Brusius (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 70:30

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Briar, Warden of Thorns	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.81
R5	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	35%	Draw	✗	0.37	-
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R7	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.51

Louis Van Keymeulen

dropped • 0-6-0

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

10:90

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Filippo Barbani (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 11:89

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jakow Koutsun (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Robin Jonel (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 32:68

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Alex Martinez de (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 32:68

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Gregory Graumer (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 32:68

10:90

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Antonio Tacchella (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: 11:89

Meta Fit

0% (0/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R6	CC	Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-

Christoph Stich

dropped • 1-2-0

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.4

Surp

1.1

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Fred Bird (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 32:68

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sebastian Sommer (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Suciu Andrei (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.09
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Gaál Benjamin

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dimitris Melissinos (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Christoph Jablonowski (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.