Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 5-3-0
50%
Meta
+1.9
Perf
3.5
Surp
3.8
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Dean Flanagan (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs René Rost (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 59:41
15:85
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs David Chirulescu (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 17:83
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Alexandre Fourrier (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 50:50
15:85
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Gabe Sher (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 17:83
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Daniel Ipakchian (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Round 7: Win vs Michaele Teppa (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs David Calf (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
3.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 15% | Loss |
| R4 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 15% | Loss |
| R6 | Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Lexi, Livewire | 15% | Win |
| R8 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-1
38%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.8
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs John Bergström (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Cristian-Andrei Cioban (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 59:41
15:85
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Peter Stürmer (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 17:83
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Dennis Canaki (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46
15:85
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Bartosz Kosmacz (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 17:83
Round 6: Win vs Ronja Kieffer (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Balint Herendi (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73
15:85
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Michaele Teppa (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 17:83
Meta Fit
38% (3/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 15% | Draw |
| R4 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 15% | Loss |
| R6 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Loss |
| R8 | Lexi, Livewire | 15% | Loss |
dropped • 1-6-1
50%
Meta
-2.4
Perf
3.2
Surp
0.8
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Stephan Waider (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 53:47
25:75
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Bruno Vale Fernandes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73
15:85
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Sven Pavlek (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 17:83
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Andreas Ventzel (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 38:62
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Mark Tan (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 38:62
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Matthias Zeiziger (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Draw vs Felix N (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Koos Van den Berg (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Loss |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 15% | Loss |
| R4 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 40% | Loss |
| R6 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity | 50% | Draw |
| R8 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 60% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
14%
Meta
+2.2
Perf
3.4
Surp
4.9
Diff
15:85
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Toni Schwarze (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 17:83
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Logan Bolam (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Zdeněk Matura (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 18:82
Round 4: Win vs Sebastian Sommer (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory
Round 5: Win vs Søren Madsen (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Round 6: Win vs Patrick Alain Franco (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73
Meta Fit
14% (1/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
4.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 15% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 15% | Win |
| R5 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Lexi, Livewire | 15% | Win |
| R7 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
17%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
3.4
Surp
3.4
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Hugo Jobe (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tim McCarthy (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Christoph Thuneke (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 38:62
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Thorsten Drescher (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 33:67
Round 5: Win vs Luca Pellegrino (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory
Round 6: Win vs Goran Lovric (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Meta Fit
17% (1/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Win |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Win |
| R6 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 35% | Win |
dropped • 3-3-0
33%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
2.7
Surp
2.5
Diff
25:75
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Nicolas Scandalis (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 27:73
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ricardo Nguyen (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Dennis Ryms (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44
Round 4: Win vs Maximilien Berger (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Round 5: Win vs Mikey Dwyer (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
15:85
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Alexander Tsohohey (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 17:83
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 25% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 40% | Win |
| R5 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Lexi, Livewire | 15% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
33%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Joe Potter (Briar, Warden of Thorns) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Guillem Las Heras (Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
15:85
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Marco Lettieri (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 17:83
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Saillour (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 18:82
Round 5: Win vs Thomas De Wolf (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Cédric Florent (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 56:44
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Briar, Warden of Thorns | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Oldhim, Grandfather of Eternity | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 15% | Loss |
| R4 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 20% | Loss |
| R5 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
33%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.1
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Mark Henderson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Italo Molina (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 36:64
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Stijn Ginneberge (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 36:64
15:85
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Wim Eliano (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 17:83
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Xiaoliang Yang (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 59:41
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Kevin Gehringer (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 15% | Win |
| R2 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 15% | Loss |
| R5 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Bravo, Showstopper | 55% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.