Battle Hardened: Birmingham 2023 - Kano (Blitz)

Kano

11 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Matthew Sarrington

3rd • 7-2-0

33%

Meta

+3.0

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.9

Diff

30:70

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Jodie Dorling (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

30:70

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Adam Haill (Chane) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

80:20

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Paul Crame (Rhinar) - Expected: 78:22

30:70

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Nuno Miguel Correia das Neves (Chane) - Expected: 32:68

65:35

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Javier Mellado Tellez (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 65:35

30:70

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Szymon Wrzesień-Kwiatkowski (Chane) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

30:70

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Thomas van den Berg (Chane) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

65:35

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Connor McGrath (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 65:35

30:70

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Nguyen Giang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

33% (3/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.19
R2	Blitz	Chane	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.36
R3	Blitz	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.12
R4	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R5	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.35
R6	Blitz	Chane	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.09
R7	Blitz	Chane	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.27
R8	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.55
R9	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Søren Madsen

3rd • 7-2-0

78%

Meta

+2.4

Perf

4.4

Surp

3.1

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Ethan Rambarran (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

30:70

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Chane) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Michaele Teppa (Emperor, Dracai of Aesir) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

65:35

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Connor McGrath (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 65:35

30:70

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Nuno Miguel Correia das Neves (Chane) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Li (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Sven Tscheppainz (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

80:20

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Paul Crame (Rhinar) - Expected: 78:22

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Loss vs Bartosz Dominiak (Briar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Blitz	Chane	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.36
R3	Blitz	Emperor, Dracai of Aesir	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.28
R5	Blitz	Chane	30%	Win	✗	0.68	0.91
R6	Blitz	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.78
R8	Blitz	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.32
R9	Blitz	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tim McCarthy

23rd • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.6

Diff

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Adrian Samyudia (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Li (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

65:35

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs George Bowles (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 65:35

80:20

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Michał Sierszulski (Rhinar) - Expected: 78:22, favorite upset

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Noah Hicks (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Mathias W (Emperor, Dracai of Aesir) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

65:35

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Julien Erdreich (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Blitz	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.27
R4	Blitz	Rhinar	80%	Loss	✓	0.78	-
R5	Blitz	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Blitz	Emperor, Dracai of Aesir	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.62

Marco Lettieri

39th • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.3

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Oliver Dutton (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs kurtulus ay (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Oli Cornish (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Katherina Walshe-Grey (Prism, Advent of Thrones) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Matthias Verbeeck (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs nino Zimmermann (Emperor, Dracai of Aesir) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Michaele Teppa (Emperor, Dracai of Aesir) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Blitz	Bravo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Blitz	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Prism, Advent of Thrones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Blitz	Emperor, Dracai of Aesir	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Blitz	Emperor, Dracai of Aesir	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Adrian Samyudia

40th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Tim McCarthy (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Rayner (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Craig Johnson (Uzuri) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

30:70

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs René Schep (Chane) - Expected: 32:68

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Zak Murray (Briar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

30:70

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Patrik Koller (Chane) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

80:20

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Igor Koutzevitch (Rhinar) - Expected: 78:22

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Boltyn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Blitz	Uzuri	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R5	Blitz	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Blitz	Chane	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.40
R7	Blitz	Rhinar	80%	Win	✓	0.22	0.36

Kathryn Marshall

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.4

Surp

0.8

Diff

30:70

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Oliver M (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

65:35

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Connor McGrath (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs nino Zimmermann (Emperor, Dracai of Aesir) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Joe Potter (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Tuck (Dash) - Expected: 56:44

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel VandenBurg (Katsu) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.28
R2	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	Blitz	Emperor, Dracai of Aesir	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	Blitz	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Dash	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R6	Blitz	Katsu	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Joe Potter

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

65:35

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs George Bowles (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 65:35

30:70

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Mateusz Sass (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 31:69

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Stefano Berian (Briar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Kathryn Marshall (Kano) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs René Schep (Chane) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.12
R2	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	Blitz	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R5	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Liam Canning

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Matthias Verbeeck (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Kate Dunstone (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

30:70

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Nuno Miguel Correia das Neves (Chane) - Expected: 32:68

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Jake Armes (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Blitz	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	Blitz	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Gary White

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.5

Diff

30:70

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Mateusz Sass (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 31:69

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Earley (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Bartosz Dominiak (Briar) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

30:70

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Oliver M (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	Blitz	Bravo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Blitz	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Jeppe Madsen

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Antonis Kazouris (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 65:35

30:70

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Piotr Krzempek (Chane) - Expected: 32:68

30:70

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Eugene C (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R2	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R3	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Jake Warburton

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

0.8

Surp

0.0

Diff

30:70

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Maximilien Berger (Chane) - Expected: 32:68

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Mohammad Rafiq (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (0.8 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Chane	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	Blitz	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.