Rhinar at Battle Hardened: Birmingham 2023 — FaB-Results

Rhinar

Rhinar

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

5th • 6-2-0

38%

Meta

+2.8

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.5

Diff

Dash

45:55

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Samuel Thomas (Dash) - Expected: 47:53

Kassai, Cintari Sellsword

40:60

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Kamil "Kaka" Żerek (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Kano

20:80

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Sarrington (Kano) - Expected: 22:78

Riptide

R4

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Natalia Berger (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Kassai, Cintari Sellsword

40:60

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Christopher Clark (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Prism, Advent of Thrones

R6

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Katherina Walshe-Grey (Prism, Advent of Thrones) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Ira, Crimson Haze

R7

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Mateusz Sass (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Kano

20:80

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Søren Madsen (Kano) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dash	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.14
R2	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.34
R3	Blitz	Kano	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R4	Blitz	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.86
R6	Blitz	Prism, Advent of Thrones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Blitz	Kano	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

Michał Sierszulski

27th • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.9

Diff

Dash

45:55

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Florin Mazilu (Dash) - Expected: 47:53

Levia

R2

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Noah Hicks (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Katsu

R3

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Daniel VandenBurg (Katsu) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Kano

20:80

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Tim McCarthy (Kano) - Expected: 22:78, underdog victory

Prism

90:10

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Darren Hazelden (Prism) - Expected: 90:10

Kassai, Cintari Sellsword

40:60

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Alexander Steiner (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 39:61

Levia

R7

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Kate Dunstone (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dash	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.16
R2	Blitz	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Katsu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Blitz	Kano	20%	Win	✗	0.78	1.24
R5	Blitz	Prism	90%	Win	✓	0.10	0.11
R6	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R7	Blitz	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Christian Uffelmann

42nd • 3-3-1

43%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.4

Diff

Chane

25:75

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Adam Haill (Chane) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

Rhinar

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Francesco D'Amendola (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Kassai, Cintari Sellsword

40:60

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Thierry Entringer (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 39:61

Kassai, Cintari Sellsword

40:60

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Tomasz Żelazko (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Kassai, Cintari Sellsword

40:60

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Connor McGrath (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 39:61

Levia

R6

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Kate Dunstone (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Emperor, Dracai of Aesir

R7

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Draw vs Mathias W (Emperor, Dracai of Aesir) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Chane	25%	Win	✗	0.75	0.29
R2	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.78
R5	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R6	Blitz	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Emperor, Dracai of Aesir	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-

Sébastien Guilbaud

46th • 3-3-1

71%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.4

Diff

Ira, Crimson Haze

R1

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Nguyen Giang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Vynnset

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Joe Whetter (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50

Rhinar

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Francesco D'Amendola (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Chane

25:75

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Toon Vertommen (Chane) - Expected: 25:75

Katsu

R5

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Daniel VandenBurg (Katsu) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Kassai, Cintari Sellsword

40:60

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Christopher Clark (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 39:61

Ira, Crimson Haze

R7

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Draw vs Eugene C (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Blitz	Chane	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R5	Blitz	Katsu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R7	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-

Igor Koutzevitch

50th • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.0

Diff

Emperor, Dracai of Aesir

R1

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs nino Zimmermann (Emperor, Dracai of Aesir) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Levia

R2

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Matthias Verbeeck (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Kassai, Cintari Sellsword

40:60

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Alexander Steiner (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 39:61

Levia

R4

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Martin Bergström (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Chane

25:75

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Adam Haill (Chane) - Expected: 25:75

Kassai, Cintari Sellsword

40:60

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Jose Alves (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Kano

20:80

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Adrian Samyudia (Kano) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Emperor, Dracai of Aesir	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	Blitz	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Blitz	Chane	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R6	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.17
R7	Blitz	Kano	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

Francesco D'Amendola

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.3

Diff

Kassai, Cintari Sellsword

40:60

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Christopher Clark (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Rhinar

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Christian Uffelmann (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Rhinar

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Sébastien Guilbaud (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Levia

R4

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Matthias Verbeeck (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Riptide

R5

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs James Dales (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.27
R2	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Riptide	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

Azalea

R1

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Larsson (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Levia

R2

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Jack Raven (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Chane

25:75

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Sean Knowelden (Chane) - Expected: 25:75

Chane

25:75

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs David Calf (Chane) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	Blitz	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Blitz	Chane	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R4	Blitz	Chane	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

!

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

!!

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.