Vynnset at Battle Hardened: Birmingham 2023
Vynnset
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
34th • 4-3-0
100%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.6
Diff
50:50
R1 Blitz
Round 1: Loss vs Connor McGrath (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R2 Blitz
Round 2: Loss vs Sébastien Guilbaud (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R3 Blitz
Round 3: Win vs Haukur Thor Buason (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R4 Blitz
Round 4: Win vs George Bowles (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 48:52
R5
R5 Blitz
Round 5: Win vs Oliver M (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R6
R6 Blitz
Round 6: Win vs Eugene C (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
50:50
R7 Blitz
Round 7: Loss vs Emlyn Ingram (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai, Cintari Sellsword | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Kassai, Cintari Sellsword | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai, Cintari Sellsword | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Ira, Crimson Haze | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Ira, Crimson Haze | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Kassai, Cintari Sellsword | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.