Ira, Crimson Haze at Battle Hardened: Birmingham 2023
Ira, Crimson Haze
7 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
1st • 10-0-0
100%
Meta
+4.7
Perf
4.7
Surp
4.9
Diff
R1
R1 Blitz
Round 1: Win vs Sébastien Guilbaud (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
R2
R2 Blitz
Round 2: Win vs Tobias Göppert (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
55:45
R3 Blitz
Round 3: Win vs Toon Vertommen (Chane) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R4 Blitz
Round 4: Win vs Piotr Krzempek (Chane) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R5 Blitz
Round 5: Win vs Thomas van den Berg (Chane) - Expected: 53:47
R6
R6 Blitz
Round 6: Win vs Sven Tscheppainz (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R7
R7 Blitz
Round 7: Win vs Daniel Li (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
55:45
R8 Blitz
Round 8: Win vs David Calf (Chane) - Expected: 53:47
70:30
R9 Blitz
Round 9: Win vs Matthew Sarrington (Kano) - Expected: 69:31
R10
R10 Blitz
Round 10: Win vs Bartosz Dominiak (Briar) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (10/10 favorable matchups)
Performance
+4.7 Wins (5.3 expected, 10 actual)
Surprise
4.7 total deviation
Difficulty
4.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Fai | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Chane | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Chane | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Chane | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Riptide | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Fai | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Chane | 55% | Win |
| R9 | Kano | 70% | Win |
| R10 | Briar | 50% | Win |
12th • 5-2-0
100%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.3
Diff
70:30
R1 Blitz
Round 1: Win vs Gary White (Kano) - Expected: 69:31
70:30
R2 Blitz
Round 2: Win vs Joe Potter (Kano) - Expected: 69:31
R3
R3 Blitz
Round 3: Loss vs Connor McGrath (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
55:45
R4 Blitz
Round 4: Win vs Maximilien Berger (Chane) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R5 Blitz
Round 5: Win vs Marcin Pelzner (Dash) - Expected: 50:50
55:45
R6 Blitz
Round 6: Win vs René Schep (Chane) - Expected: 53:47
R7
R7 Blitz
Round 7: Loss vs Paul Crame (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Kano | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai, Cintari Sellsword | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Chane | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Dash | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Chane | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Rhinar | 50% | Loss |
31st • 4-3-0
100%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.2
Diff
R1
R1 Blitz
Round 1: Loss vs Noah Hicks (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
50:50
R2 Blitz
Round 2: Win vs Lorenzo Petrone (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R3
R3 Blitz
Round 3: Win vs James Dales (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R4
R4 Blitz
Round 4: Loss vs Thierry Entringer (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R5
R5 Blitz
Round 5: Win vs Ethan Rambarran (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
55:45
R6 Blitz
Round 6: Win vs Toon Vertommen (Chane) - Expected: 53:47
R7
R7 Blitz
Round 7: Loss vs Nathan Hills (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Crimson Haze | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Riptide | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Kassai, Cintari Sellsword | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Riptide | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Chane | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Riptide | 50% | Loss |
41st • 4-3-0
100%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.6
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Kathryn Marshall (Kano) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
55:45
R2 Blitz
Round 2: Loss vs David Calf (Chane) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R3 Blitz
Round 3: Win vs Adam Haill (Chane) - Expected: 53:47
70:30
R4 Blitz
Round 4: Win vs Gary White (Kano) - Expected: 69:31
R5
R5 Blitz
Round 5: Loss vs Joe Whetter (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
50:50
R6 Blitz
Round 6: Win vs Jodie Dorling (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R7
R7 Blitz
Round 7: Win vs kurtulus ay (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano | 70% | Loss |
| R2 | Chane | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Chane | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Kano | 70% | Win |
| R5 | Vynnset | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Ira, Crimson Haze | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Bravo | 50% | Win |
45th • 3-3-1
100%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.1
Diff
R1
R1 Blitz
Round 1: Win vs elliot boxall (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
R2
R2 Blitz
Round 2: Loss vs Tomasz Żelazko (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
70:30
R3 Blitz
Round 3: Win vs Jeppe Madsen (Kano) - Expected: 69:31
R4
R4 Blitz
Round 4: Loss vs Kate Dunstone (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R5
R5 Blitz
Round 5: Win vs kurtulus ay (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R6
R6 Blitz
Round 6: Loss vs Joe Whetter (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R7
R7 Blitz
Round 7: Draw vs Sébastien Guilbaud (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Valda Brightaxe | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai, Cintari Sellsword | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Kano | 70% | Win |
| R4 | Levia | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Bravo | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Vynnset | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Rhinar | 50% | Draw |
56th • 3-4-0
100%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
3.6
Surp
2.6
Diff
55:45
R1 Blitz
Round 1: Loss vs Sean Knowelden (Chane) - Expected: 53:47
50:50
R2 Blitz
Round 2: Loss vs Marc Alexandre (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
R3
R3 Blitz
Round 3: Loss vs Katherina Walshe-Grey (Prism, Advent of Thrones) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
55:45
R4 Blitz
Round 4: Loss vs Adam Haill (Chane) - Expected: 53:47
R5
R5 Blitz
Round 5: Win vs Edward Harris (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
50:50
R6 Blitz
Round 6: Win vs Samuel Thomas (Dash) - Expected: 50:50
R7
R7 Blitz
Round 7: Win vs Ethan Rambarran (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Chane | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Crimson Haze | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Advent of Thrones | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Chane | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Kassai, Cintari Sellsword | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Dash | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Riptide | 50% | Win |
60th • 2-5-0
100%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
3.7
Surp
1.3
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Sarrington (Kano) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
R2
R2 Blitz
Round 2: Loss vs Oliver Dutton (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R3
R3 Blitz
Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Jones (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R4
R4 Blitz
Round 4: Win vs James Dales (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R5
R5 Blitz
Round 5: Win vs Kamil "Kaka" Żerek (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
50:50
R6 Blitz
Round 6: Loss vs Oliver M (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R7 Blitz
Round 7: Loss vs Daniele Frattarelli (Chane) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano | 70% | Loss |
| R2 | Dorinthea | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Berserker Runt | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Riptide | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Kassai, Cintari Sellsword | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Ira, Crimson Haze | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Chane | 55% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.