Riptide at Battle Hardened: Birmingham 2023

Riptide

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Sven Tscheppainz

9th • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Danni Andersen (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

65:35

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Gabriel Leeming (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Javier Mellado Tellez (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 67:33

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Sean Knowelden (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Szymon Wrzesień-Kwiatkowski (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Nguyen Giang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Søren Madsen (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.17
R3	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.25
R4	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nathan Hills

19th • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.9

Diff

65:35

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs ISABELLE WIMBLE (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 67:33

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Andrew Richardson (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Martin Hechtberger (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Jason Rolfe (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Bartosz Dominiak (Briar) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Tom Ward (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Marc Alexandre (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.08
R2	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Blitz	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Blitz	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Natalia Berger

22nd • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.6

Diff

65:35

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Alexander Steiner (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 67:33

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Patrik Koller (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Rhyan Bromell (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Paul Crame (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

65:35

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Jose Alves (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 67:33

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Oli Cornish (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Martin Hechtberger (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.08
R2	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Blitz	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.42
R6	Blitz	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Blitz	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Tomasz Buda

51st • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Jack Raven (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

65:35

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs George Bowles (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Marcos Vassão (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

65:35

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Kamil "Kaka" Żerek (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 67:33

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Martin Hechtberger (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Adam Haill (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Matthias Verbeeck (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R3	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.33
R5	Blitz	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Blitz	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ethan Rambarran

57th • 2-5-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Søren Madsen (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Florin Mazilu (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Stefaan Morbee (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

65:35

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Emlyn Ingram (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Marc Alexandre (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Maximilien Berger (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Lorenzo Petrone (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R5	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

James Dales

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs René Schep (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

65:35

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Haukur Thor Buason (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 67:33

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Marc Alexandre (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Jodie Dorling (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Francesco D'Amendola (Rhinar) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs kurtulus ay (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R3	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Blitz	Bravo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.