Battle Hardened: Birmingham 2023 - Bravo (Blitz)

Bravo

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

kurtulus ay

47th • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Martin Hechtberger (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Marco Lettieri (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Dan York (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Darren Hazelden (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Eugene C (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs James Dales (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Oliver M (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Blitz	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Blitz	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Blitz	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Paul Petersson-Rebelo

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Thierry Entringer (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Edward Harris (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Maximilien Berger (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Adam Collins

dropped • 1-1-0

100%

Meta

0.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Danni Andersen (Arakni, Solitary Confinement) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Arakni, Solitary Confinement	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Benjamin Earley

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Piotr Krzempek (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Gary White (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.