Battle Hardened: Birmingham 2023 - Chane (Blitz)

Chane

20 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

David Calf

5th • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.8

Diff

60:40

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Gabriel Leeming (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Oliver M (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 47:53

85:15

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Oliver Dutton (Dorinthea) - Expected: 83:17

75:25

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs James Ashall (Rhinar) - Expected: 75:25

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Tom Ward (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Jack Raven (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Katherina Walshe-Grey (Prism, Advent of Thrones) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

45:55

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Nguyen Giang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.27
R3	Blitz	Dorinthea	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.10
R4	Blitz	Rhinar	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.21
R5	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Blitz	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Blitz	Prism, Advent of Thrones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Nuno Miguel Correia das Neves

10th • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Rayner (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

60:40

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Jose Alves (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

70:30

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Liam Canning (Kano) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Sarrington (Kano) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Søren Madsen (Kano) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

60:40

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Rhyan Bromell (Prism) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Bartosz Dominiak (Briar) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Boltyn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.22
R3	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.24
R4	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.32
R5	Blitz	Kano	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R6	Blitz	Prism	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.63
R7	Blitz	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Thomas van den Berg

11th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.1

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs René Schep (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Andrew Richardson (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

60:40

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Rhyan Bromell (Prism) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Nguyen Giang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Sean Knowelden (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Matthew Sarrington (Kano) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Blitz	Prism	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.42
R5	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R6	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Blitz	Kano	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-

Szymon Wrzesień-Kwiatkowski

15th • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.4

Diff

60:40

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Haukur Thor Buason (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Daniele Frattarelli (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Man Hiem Cheung (Dorinthea) - Expected: 83:17

70:30

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Marcin Pelzner (Dash) - Expected: 68:32

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Sven Tscheppainz (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

70:30

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Matthew Sarrington (Kano) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

70:30

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Jason Rolfe (Dash) - Expected: 68:32

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.11
R2	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Blitz	Dorinthea	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.11
R4	Blitz	Dash	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.32
R5	Blitz	Riptide	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Blitz	Kano	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R7	Blitz	Dash	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.56

René Schep

16th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.0

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs James Dales (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Thomas van den Berg (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Natasha Collins (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

70:30

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Adrian Samyudia (Kano) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Joe Potter (Kano) - Expected: 68:32

45:55

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Mateusz Sass (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Rhyan Bromell (Prism) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.32
R5	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.40
R6	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R7	Blitz	Prism	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.74

Piotr Krzempek

18th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.3

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Benjamin Earley (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

70:30

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Jeppe Madsen (Kano) - Expected: 68:32

60:40

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Tomasz Żelazko (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Nguyen Giang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Alexander Steiner (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Michaele Teppa (Emperor, Dracai of Aesir) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

60:40

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Gabriel Leeming (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Bravo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.16
R3	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.34
R4	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	Blitz	Emperor, Dracai of Aesir	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.78

Sean Knowelden

25th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.2

Diff

45:55

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Lorenzo Petrone (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Jason Rolfe (Dash) - Expected: 68:32

75:25

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs James Ashall (Rhinar) - Expected: 75:25

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Sven Tscheppainz (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Oli Cornish (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Thomas van den Berg (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Christopher Clark (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.16
R2	Blitz	Dash	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.16
R3	Blitz	Rhinar	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.18
R4	Blitz	Riptide	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Toon Vertommen

35th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Katherina Walshe-Grey (Prism, Advent of Thrones) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

60:40

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Bartosz Dominiak (Briar) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Nguyen Giang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 47:53

75:25

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Sébastien Guilbaud (Rhinar) - Expected: 75:25

60:40

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Emlyn Ingram (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Marc Alexandre (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Maximilien Berger (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Prism, Advent of Thrones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Blitz	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.20
R3	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	Blitz	Rhinar	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.24
R5	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R6	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R7	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Maximilien Berger

48th • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.4

Diff

70:30

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Jake Warburton (Kano) - Expected: 68:32

60:40

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Javier Mellado Tellez (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Paul Petersson-Rebelo (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

45:55

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Mateusz Sass (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 47:53

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Michaele Teppa (Emperor, Dracai of Aesir) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Ethan Rambarran (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Toon Vertommen (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kano	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.08
R2	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	Blitz	Bravo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R5	Blitz	Emperor, Dracai of Aesir	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Blitz	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Daniele Frattarelli

54th • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.9

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Marcos Vassão (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Szymon Wrzesień-Kwiatkowski (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Julien Erdreich (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Natasha Collins (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

60:40

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Antonis Kazouris (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Jodie Dorling (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	Blitz	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R7	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.09

Adam Haill

59th • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

3.7

Surp

0.9

Diff

75:25

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Christian Uffelmann (Rhinar) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

70:30

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Sarrington (Kano) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

45:55

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Oliver M (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Lorenzo Petrone (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 47:53

75:25

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Igor Koutzevitch (Rhinar) - Expected: 75:25

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Tomasz Buda (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Noah Hicks (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Rhinar	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R2	Blitz	Kano	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R3	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.62
R5	Blitz	Rhinar	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.30
R6	Blitz	Riptide	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tom Ward

dropped • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Tobias Göppert (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Joshua Jones (Kayo, Berserker Runt) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

70:30

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Matthew Tuck (Dash) - Expected: 68:32

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Patrik Koller (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs David Calf (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Nathan Hills (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Kayo, Berserker Runt	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Blitz	Dash	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.28
R4	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R5	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Blitz	Riptide	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Dan York

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.7

Diff

60:40

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Kamil "Kaka" Żerek (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Antonis Kazouris (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs kurtulus ay (Bravo) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

60:40

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Stefano Berian (Briar) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

70:30

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Samuel Thomas (Dash) - Expected: 68:32

60:40

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Julien Erdreich (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R3	Blitz	Bravo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R5	Blitz	Dash	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.47
R6	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Patrik Koller

dropped • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

70:30

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Philip Gibbons (Dash) - Expected: 68:32

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Natalia Berger (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

60:40

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Julien Erdreich (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Tom Ward (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Andrew Richardson (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

70:30

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Adrian Samyudia (Kano) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dash	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.09
R2	Blitz	Riptide	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R4	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Blitz	Kano	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-

Renzo Schietgat

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Michaele Teppa (Emperor, Dracai of Aesir) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Ville Schalin (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Matthias Verbeeck (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

60:40

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Edward Harris (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Stefaan Morbee (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Emperor, Dracai of Aesir	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.63
R5	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Yassine Echafai Tripiana

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs James Thourgood (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Søren Madsen (Kano) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

50:50

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Daniele Frattarelli (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Alexander Steiner (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Tomasz Żelazko (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Blitz	Kano	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R3	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Stefaan Morbee

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.4

Diff

60:40

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Jake Armes (Prism) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs None (Unknown)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Ethan Rambarran (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Craig Johnson (Uzuri) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Renzo Schietgat (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Prism	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	Blitz	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Blitz	Riptide	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Uzuri	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

James Thourgood

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Yassine Echafai Tripiana (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Darren Hazelden (Prism) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

60:40

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Edward Harris (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Prism	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R3	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.78

Ville Schalin

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Mark Spilsbury (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Renzo Schietgat (Chane) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Gabriel Leeming (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Levia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Jude Fisher

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Tomasz Żelazko (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Emlyn Ingram (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.