Battle Hardened: Birmingham 2023 - Fai (Blitz)

Fai

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Daniel Li

5th • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.6

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Jason Ogden (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Tim McCarthy (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Jake Armes (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Oli Cornish (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Thierry Entringer (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Søren Madsen (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Loss vs Nguyen Giang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Loss vs Bartosz Dominiak (Briar) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Blitz	Prism	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Blitz	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Blitz	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Natasha Collins

dropped • 1-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Stuart Robb (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Jake Armes (Prism) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs René Schep (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Loss vs Jose Alves (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Daniele Frattarelli (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Blitz	Prism	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Blitz	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tobias Göppert

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Tom Ward (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Nguyen Giang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Philip Gibbons (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Dash	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.