Battle Hardened: Birmingham 2023 - Briar (Blitz)

Briar

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Bartosz Dominiak

2nd • 8-2-0

80%

Meta

+3.2

Perf

5.0

Surp

4.6

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Win vs Emlyn Ingram (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

40:60

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Toon Vertommen (Chane) - Expected: 38:62

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs Gary White (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Philip Gibbons (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Nathan Hills (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Win vs Gabriel Leeming (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

40:60

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Nuno Miguel Correia das Neves (Chane) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

R8 Blitz

Round 8: Win vs Daniel Li (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R9 Blitz

Round 9: Win vs Søren Madsen (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R10

R10 Blitz

Round 10: Loss vs Nguyen Giang (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

80% (8/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	Blitz	Chane	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.30
R4	Blitz	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R5	Blitz	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R6	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R7	Blitz	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.96
R8	Blitz	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R9	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.90
R10	Blitz	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Zak Murray

38th • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.7

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Javier Mellado Tellez (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Loss vs Stefano Berian (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Win vs elliot boxall (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Oliver Dutton (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Win vs Adrian Samyudia (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R6 Blitz

Round 6: Loss vs Man Hiem Cheung (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R7 Blitz

Round 7: Win vs Daniel VandenBurg (Katsu) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Blitz	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Blitz	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Blitz	Kano	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Blitz	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Blitz	Katsu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Stefano Berian

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.5

Diff

R1 Blitz

Round 1: Loss vs Mathias W (Emperor, Dracai of Aesir) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R2 Blitz

Round 2: Win vs Zak Murray (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R3 Blitz

Round 3: Loss vs Joe Potter (Kano) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

40:60

R4 Blitz

Round 4: Win vs Dan York (Chane) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

R5 Blitz

Round 5: Loss vs Katherina Walshe-Grey (Prism, Advent of Thrones) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Blitz	Emperor, Dracai of Aesir	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Blitz	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Blitz	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Blitz	Chane	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.10
R5	Blitz	Prism, Advent of Thrones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.