Katsu, the Wanderer at Calling: Dallas-Fort Worth 2023

Katsu, the Wanderer

17 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Dylan Samuels

37th • 7-5-0

50%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

5.6

Surp

2.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hailey Abbott (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Thomas Yarbrough (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs JONATHAN HENLEY (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Hyunjun Jeon (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Cody Williams (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jarrett Bolwahnn (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Joshua Rath (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 61:39

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Merrick Kemp (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

50% (6/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.06
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.20
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.32
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.61
R7	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.41
R8	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.48
R9	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R10	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R11	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Emery Powell

54th • 6-6-0

50%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

6.0

Surp

2.9

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jarrett Bolwahnn (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Karlson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kyle Tamayo (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 56:44

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Joseph Schelling (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Austin Mender (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Anthony Vero Cerenzio (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Evan Dyck (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 61:39

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Maddux Warren (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Rodrigo Martinez (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Shane Martin (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Peter Buddensiek (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

50% (6/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

6.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.25
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R4	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.63
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.42
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.01
R9	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R10	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Aaron Fagalde

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hayley Neighbors (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Clinton Jeffers (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tyler Brotton (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Lee (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Maddux Warren (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Richard Yanke (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.11
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.04
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Anthony Ramirez

dropped • 4-3-0

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.4

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alexander Karlson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Rodel Rodea (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Lorenz (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jesse Chwaliszewski (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ryan Corcoran (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jose Garcia (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

0% (0/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.22
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.43
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.69
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.08
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Charles Gilbert

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Klein (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Matthew Colter (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs William Bradshaw (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Isaak Krut (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Daeton Harris (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Michael Thorington (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jake Ausdemore (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.11
R2	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R5	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.73
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Dan Mui

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs JONATHAN HENLEY (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andrew Christ (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Boudreaux (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrew Prejean (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Payne Ummerteskee (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs BRAD ALLRED (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.59
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.65
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Daniel Gilmartin

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.9

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Leblanc (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tyler Biggs (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tariq Patel (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs David Lee (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs William Garrison (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Evan Dyck (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jacob Bader (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.43
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.08
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R7	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.28

James Mangles

dropped • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Leblanc (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Adrian Aucoin Jr (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Barnes (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tony Cooley (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 64:36

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs benjamin slenczka (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 64:36

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Vincel Cordry (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.46
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.55
R7	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Michael Gohl

dropped • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.8

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ajay Patel (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Richards (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Marvin Dominguez (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jake Ausdemore (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dave Cordeiro (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 41:59

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Charles Castille (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Thomas Yarbrough (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.09
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.65
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R5	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.21

Payne Ummerteskee

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.9

Surp

2.9

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Rodel Rodea (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jaden Urdiales (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dave Cordeiro (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Filipe Lima Cardoso (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dan Mui (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Evan Ford (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.43
R3	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.55
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.59
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.30
R7	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Grant Grisham

dropped • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Joseph Schelling (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Kalon Stephens (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 61:39

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Chad Allred (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Rodrigo Martinez (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 49:51

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Chris Hughes (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 43:57

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Joshua Lovell (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.21
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.27
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R7	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Keenan Lonell

dropped • 1-6-0

43%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Richard Yanke (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 43:57

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Hankins (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jason Perez (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Steve Gilland (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Juan Flores (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Salvatore Calderone (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Salvatore Calderone

dropped • 1-6-0

71%

Meta

-2.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jacob Bader (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrew Christ (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dylan Deitz (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Max Mosier (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Keenan Lonell (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Peter Beck (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R5	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tyler Hughes

dropped • 1-6-0

86%

Meta

-2.8

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Avery Hill (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kyle Van Zuiden (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs George Ferris (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Madison McDown (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Scott Payne (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 43:57

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Kalon Stephens (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs tyler kent (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Andrew Christ

dropped • 2-4-0

83%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Dan Mui (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Salvatore Calderone (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Dunbar (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Chad Allred (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.47
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

Florin-Cristian Loghin

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Simon Aguirre (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tim Casey (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 61:39

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mychael Caywood (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jacob Bader (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Robert Ramsey (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.29
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.02
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Tyler Brotton

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ovas Siddiqui (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 43:57

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Timothy Bunn (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Aaron Fagalde (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ian Shaffer (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.30
R2	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.