Rhinar, Reckless Rampage at Calling: Dallas-Fort Worth 2023
Rhinar, Reckless Rampage
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
43rd • 7-5-0
17%
Meta
+2.8
Perf
5.7
Surp
4.5
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs James Mangles (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Joseph Kaiser (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51
Round 3: Win vs Matthew Colter (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
Round 4: Win vs Summer Giles (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Randall Robinson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Julian Sniffen (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 47:53
Round 7: Win vs Yuanji Li (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory
20:80
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Long Dao (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 19:81
20:80
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Matthew Boudreaux (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 19:81
20:80
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs GDPR-DEL-07/12/24-11:23:05 GDPR-DEL-07/12/24-11:23:05 (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 19:81
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Charles Dunn (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
17% (2/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
5.7 total deviation
Difficulty
4.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Lexi, Livewire | 20% | Win |
| R8 | Lexi, Livewire | 20% | Loss |
| R9 | Lexi, Livewire | 20% | Loss |
| R10 | Lexi, Livewire | 20% | Loss |
| R11 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Win |
| R12 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-5-0
71%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Michael Thorington (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 55:45
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Boudreaux (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 19:81
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Austin Elkins (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ajay Patel (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Coleman Beam (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 52:48
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Michael Dirksen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 65:35
20:80
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Matthew Greenleaf (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 19:81
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 55% | Loss |
| R5 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Lexi, Livewire | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 2-4-0
33%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.6
Surp
0.6
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Florin-Cristian Loghin (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Casey Walker (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 40:60
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Luke Hillard (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 35:65
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Michael Dirksen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 65:35
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Timothy Bunn (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
40%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
1.8
Surp
1.2
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs GDPR-DEL-07/12/24-11:23:05 GDPR-DEL-07/12/24-11:23:05 (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 19:81
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Taylor Nifong (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 19:81
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Tim Casey (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Zach Bunn (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
75%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.2
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Wesley Cole (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Daeton Harris (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Greenleaf (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 19:81
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 20% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Aaron Fagalde (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Aaron Moore (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 49:51
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Evan Vargas (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.