Calling: Dallas-Fort Worth 2023 - Fai, Rising Rebellion (CC)

Fai, Rising Rebellion

15 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Naib Mobassir

14th • 9-2-1

42%

Meta

+3.5

Perf

6.1

Surp

6.3

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joshua Phillips (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Evan Herndon (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kyle Van Zuiden (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daeton Harris (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 64:36

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Lucas Oswald (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Draw vs Reese Toomre (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Michael Barnes (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Ravi Sharma (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Yuki Lee Bender (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

30:70

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Julian Sniffen (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Pat Eshghy (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Randall Sims (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Meta Fit

42% (5/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

6.1 total deviation

Difficulty

6.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.07
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.21
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.62
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	55%	Draw	✓	0.57	-
R7	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.38
R8	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.82
R9	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R10	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.36
R11	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.13
R12	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.48

Dylan Williamson

29th • 8-4-0

42%

Meta

+2.6

Perf

6.7

Surp

5.2

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jose Garcia (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dylan Koutsos (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Maxwell Mitchell (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Luke Magnuson (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Matthew Trevino (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Alex Hernandez (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Sebastiano Cavallo (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Mychael Caywood (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Mara Faris (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Matthew Boudreaux (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Ravi Sharma (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

42% (5/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.6 Wins (5.4 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

6.7 total deviation

Difficulty

5.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.12
R2	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.19
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.42
R6	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.74
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.86
R8	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.99
R9	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.60
R10	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R11	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R12	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.23

Stewart Mcgirt

42nd • 7-5-0

58%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

6.2

Surp

3.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Erick Boeder (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs JONATHAN HENLEY (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 56:44

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Michael Dirksen (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dylan Koutsos (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Joshua Phillips (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Kyle Thiele (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Trent Nguyen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Mychael Caywood (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

65:35

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Elly Bird (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Scott Weaville (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

58% (7/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

6.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.07
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	25%	Win	✗	0.73	0.47
R4	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.38
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R7	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.55
R8	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R9	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.60
R10	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.23
R11	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Wesley Cole

dropped • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.2

Surp

2.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Hayden Porter (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tony Cooley (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Ryan Youngquist (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Coleman Beam (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ovas Siddiqui (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Skylar Surguy (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jonathan Walker (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.37
R5	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	45%	Win	✗	0.55	1.15

Cameron Hughes

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs David Hughes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Marvin Dominguez (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Cody Williams (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Elly Bird (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ed Bracamontes (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Nathan Crawford (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 57:43

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Unknown)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.11
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.42
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.57
R6	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R7	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Matthew Trevino

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Yarbrough (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Nelson (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs TUCKER CAMPBELL (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew McInnis (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Dylan Williamson (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Mykel Kramer (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Austin Sacriste (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.24
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.28
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Austin Sacriste

dropped • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alex Conway (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kevin Tran (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 31:69

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Timothy Bell (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dmitry Sorokin (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Zoey (Zuppy) Gerstner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Greg Hanson (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Matthew Trevino (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.28
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R5	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R6	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R7	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

benjamin slenczka

dropped • 2-5-0

29%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Chris Hughes (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 43:57

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Barnes (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mara Faris (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Austin Somers (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 27:73

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs James Mangles (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Robert Salazar (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.18
R2	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.19
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-

Chad Allred

dropped • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrew Sones (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Levi Rauch (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Grant Grisham (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Chris Simpson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Jayson Jacks (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Andrew Christ (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.11
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.53
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R6	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.53

Ajay Patel

dropped • 2-4-0

17%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.3

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Gohl (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs tyler kent (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sean Murray (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Mike DeNicola (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Joseph Schelling (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jonathan Garretson (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.50
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.80
R5	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R6	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Dylan Deitz

dropped • 2-4-0

17%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.8

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Umar Babar (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Corcoran (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs William Warnek (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Salvatore Calderone (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ryan Hankins (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 52:48

30:70

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Griffin Murray (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.02
R5	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.78
R6	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Skylar Surguy

dropped • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Devin Jackson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Austin Somers (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 27:73

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Scott Weaville (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Lindsey Thiele (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Wesley Cole (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.49
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R4	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.23
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Tony Cooley

dropped • 1-5-0

67%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Zoey (Zuppy) Gerstner (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Wesley Cole (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs tyler kent (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs James Mangles (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Benjamin Herrick (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.74
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R6	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Kyle Van Zuiden

dropped • 1-4-0

20%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ravi Sharma (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tyler Hughes (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jedi Abaja (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 31:69

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ty Hicks (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 31:69

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.61
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R5	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-

Alex Conway

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Austin Sacriste (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Hailey Abbott (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yuanji Li (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jason Perez (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.69
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.