Azalea, Ace in the Hole at Calling: Dallas-Fort Worth 2023
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
16 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
27th • 8-4-0
25%
Meta
+2.5
Perf
6.2
Surp
4.4
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Matthew Boudreaux (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Chad Allred (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 60:40
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Daniel Rutkowski (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs William Bradshaw (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
Round 5: Win vs Trent Nguyen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
Round 7: Win vs Joseph Kaiser (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Luke Magnuson (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 41:59
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Michael Hamilton (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Chris Brummett (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 39:61
Round 11: Loss vs Rodrigo Martinez (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Round 12: Win vs Alexander Vore (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
Meta Fit
25% (3/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.5 Wins (5.5 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
6.2 total deviation
Difficulty
4.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R7 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 40% | Loss |
| R9 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R10 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
| R11 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 60% | Loss |
| R12 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Win |
33rd • 8-4-0
33%
Meta
+2.3
Perf
5.6
Surp
4.6
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Noah Beygelman (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Michael Hamilton (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Charles Dunn (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 42:58
60:40
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Skylar Surguy (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 60:40
60:40
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Jedi Abaja (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jayson Jacks (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs JONATHAN HENLEY (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 41:59
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs GDPR-DEL-07/12/24-11:23:05 GDPR-DEL-07/12/24-11:23:05 (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 39:61
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Yuanji Li (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Mychael Caywood (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Stewart Mcgirt (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 60:40
Meta Fit
33% (4/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.3 Wins (5.7 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
5.6 total deviation
Difficulty
4.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Win |
| R5 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 60% | Win |
| R6 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R9 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R11 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R12 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Win |
59th • 6-6-0
42%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
5.6
Surp
2.8
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Chris Simpson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Simon Aguirre (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 65:35
55:45
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Ryan Youngquist (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jarrett Bolwahnn (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Jonathan Fouk (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46
Round 7: Win vs Tristan Baxley (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Jacob Baugh (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 39:61
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Ravi Sharma (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Quinn Wongkew (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Jose Garcia (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
R12
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs None (Unknown)
Meta Fit
42% (5/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (5.6 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
5.6 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Win |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Loss |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
| R9 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Loss |
| R11 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R12 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
29%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
3.7
Surp
3.4
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Cody Williams (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 42:58
Round 3: Loss vs JP Coleman (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jose Garcia (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
Round 5: Win vs Mike Murray (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Kevin Guinn (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 41:59
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Alex Hernandez (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
3.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 40% | Win |
| R7 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
29%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.7
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Austin Somers (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 32:68
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jack Stoney (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Peter Desautels (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Oswald (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Chris Hughes (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Ryan Mound (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Elly Bird (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R7 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.2
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jacob Bader (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 39:61
Round 3: Loss vs Alex Broussard (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Kyle Tamayo (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Boudreaux (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Matthew Trevino (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 60:40
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Jonathan Fouk (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 60% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Win |
dropped • 3-3-0
33%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
2.9
Surp
2.1
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Joseph Kaiser (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 39:61
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Hayden Reed (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Roger Bodee (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Vincel Cordry (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Peter Desautels (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Dan Mui (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Win |
| R6 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.5
Surp
1.3
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tanner Lee (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 62:38
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tristan Baxley (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 39:61
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ajay Patel (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 60:40
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Tyler Biggs (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Bryan Wright (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs David Lee (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 60% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
3.2
Surp
1.3
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Coleman Beam (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Micah Luff (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Chris Brummett (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 39:61
Round 4: Loss vs Jonah Overholt (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
55:45
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Darren Buono (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs George Ferris (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 65% | Loss |
| R5 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Win |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-5-0
50%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
2.7
Surp
0.4
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Matt Sullivan (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 39:61
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs BRAD ALLRED (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Eric Lee (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Joel Grizzelle (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 42:58
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Bird Cabrera (Unknown)
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Erick Boeder (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 39:61
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Win |
| R4 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.0
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jonathan Garretson (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ryan Mound (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Justin Lancaster (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 54:46
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Matthew Colter (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Sean Murray (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Loss |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
0%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.2
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Pat Eshghy (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Matthew Wainwright (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Braden Wooldridge (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Ryan Corcoran (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Micah Luff (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
0% (0/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.3
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Reese Toomre (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 39:61
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Benjamin Herrick (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Elly Bird (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Yarbrough (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
0%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.8
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Henry Robichaux (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Marc Pearce (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Rodel Rodea (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
0% (0/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (1.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Bravo, Showstopper | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
100%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
1.1
Surp
0.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Charles Gilbert (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 48:52
Round 2: Loss vs Alex Broussard (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (2/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 0-2-0
100%
Meta
-1.1
Perf
1.1
Surp
0.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Lee (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 52:48
Round 2: Loss vs Niels Kornerup (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (2/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 60% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.