Calling: Dallas-Fort Worth 2023 - Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn (CC)

Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn

10 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Micah Luff

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.9

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Nixon (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Summer Giles (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Chris Hughes (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 57:43

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 25:75

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Eric Dauernnheim (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Ovas Siddiqui (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Michael Richards (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	25%	Win	✗	0.75	0.29
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.35
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R5	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.58
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.69
R7	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Roger Bodee

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Kalon Stephens (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joseph Schelling (Dash I/O) - Expected: 36:64

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs BRAD ALLRED (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Eric Reed (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Justin Fryar (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 57:43

10:90

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 12:88

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	25%	Win	✗	0.75	0.29
R2	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.35
R4	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.48
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.57
R6	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R7	CC	Lexi, Livewire	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-

Coleman Beam

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Summer Giles (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Darren Buono (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Dylan Koutsos (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Wesley Cole (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 36:64

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mike DeNicola (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Joshua Lovell (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Jedi Abaja (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.26
R3	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.77
R6	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.78
R7	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Greg Hanson

dropped • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.2

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 25:75

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Madison McDown (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 57:43

10:90

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Mychael Caywood (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 12:88

25:75

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kevin Tran (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 25:75

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Austin Sacriste (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Matthew Lee (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	25%	Win	✗	0.75	0.57
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.35
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R5	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R6	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.27
R7	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Shawn Adams

dropped • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.3

Surp

4.2

Diff

10:90

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alex Sneed (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 12:88

10:90

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Evan Ford (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 12:88

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jonathan Garretson (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 48:52

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kalon Stephens (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Timothy Bell (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Parker Brown (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: 56:44

20:80

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Benjamin Herrick (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Lexi, Livewire	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.14
R5	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R6	CC	Uzuri, Switchblade	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.72
R7	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	20%	Win	✗	0.80	2.32

Max Mosier

dropped • 1-5-1

29%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 25:75

10:90

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tyler Thao (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 12:88

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Austen Stolte (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 57:43

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Anthony Pearson (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: 32:68

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Salvatore Calderone (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Sophia Sondericker (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 57:43

25:75

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Frank Sangoy (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 25:75

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	CC	Lexi, Livewire	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R3	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Draw	✓	0.57	-
R4	CC	Viserai, Rune Blood	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.79
R6	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R7	CC	Iyslander, Stormbind	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-

Daeton Harris

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jessica Born (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Hayden Porter (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 48:52

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Rath (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 25:75

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 36:64

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Charles Gilbert (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.19
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.43
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R5	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Hyunjun Jeon

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Fryar (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs William Warnek (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Joshua Lovell (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 53:47

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Dylan Samuels (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54

10:90

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Ramsey (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 12:88

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R2	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.32
R3	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.55
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-

Matthew Wainwright

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.9

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 25:75

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 57:43

10:90

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jaden Urdiales (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 12:88, underdog victory

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Evan Vargas (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 57:43

10:90

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Joe Santianna (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 12:88

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Lexi, Livewire	10%	Win	✗	0.88	1.87
R4	CC	Bravo, Showstopper	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-

Daniel Leblanc

dropped • 0-5-0

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Gilmartin (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs James Mangles (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 46:54

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Chris Simpson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 25:75

10:90

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lindsey Thiele (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 12:88

10:90

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Devin Jackson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 12:88

Meta Fit

0% (0/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Dromai, Ash Artist	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R4	CC	Lexi, Livewire	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R5	CC	Lexi, Livewire	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.