Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn at Calling: Dallas-Fort Worth 2023
Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn
10 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Daniel Nixon (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
Round 2: Loss vs Summer Giles (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Chris Hughes (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 65:35
30:70
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Jason Watkins (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 32:68
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Eric Dauernnheim (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 67:33
65:35
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Ovas Siddiqui (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 65:35
Round 7: Loss vs Michael Richards (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 30% | Loss |
| R5 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Bravo, Showstopper | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Bravo, Showstopper | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
3.3
Surp
1.8
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Kalon Stephens (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Joseph Schelling (Dash I/O) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs BRAD ALLRED (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 67:33
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Eric Reed (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Justin Fryar (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50
Round 6: Loss vs Jonathan Magnuson (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
10:90
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 12:88
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
| R5 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Bravo, Showstopper | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Lexi, Livewire | 10% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
86%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.9
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Summer Giles (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Darren Buono (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Dylan Koutsos (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Wesley Cole (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
R5
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Mike DeNicola (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Joshua Lovell (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jedi Abaja (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
2.7
Surp
1.6
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Aaron Shantz (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 32:68
Round 2: Win vs Madison McDown (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Joel Grizzelle (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 65:35
10:90
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Mychael Caywood (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 12:88
25:75
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Kevin Tran (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 25:75
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Austin Sacriste (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Matthew Lee (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 10% | Loss |
| R5 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 25% | Loss |
| R6 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
2.9
Surp
2.8
Diff
10:90
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Alex Sneed (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 12:88
10:90
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Evan Ford (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 12:88
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Jonathan Garretson (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
Round 4: Win vs Kalon Stephens (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Timothy Bell (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Parker Brown (Uzuri, Switchblade) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Benjamin Herrick (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Lexi, Livewire | 10% | Loss |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 10% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 30% | Win |
| R5 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
| R6 | Uzuri, Switchblade | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 50% | Win |
dropped • 1-5-1
57%
Meta
-1.8
Perf
2.8
Surp
0.7
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Gui Cohen (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 32:68
10:90
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tyler Thao (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 12:88
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Draw vs Austen Stolte (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 65:35
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Anthony Pearson (Viserai, Rune Blood) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Salvatore Calderone (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Sophia Sondericker (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50
25:75
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Frank Sangoy (Iyslander, Stormbind) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Lexi, Livewire | 10% | Loss |
| R3 | Bravo, Showstopper | 65% | Draw |
| R4 | Viserai, Rune Blood | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Iyslander, Stormbind | 25% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.3
Surp
0.6
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jessica Born (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Hayden Porter (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Joshua Rath (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 32:68
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Naib Mobassir (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
50:50
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Charles Gilbert (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
80%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.9
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Justin Fryar (Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire) - Expected: 50:50
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs William Warnek (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 65:35
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Joshua Lovell (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Dylan Samuels (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50
10:90
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Michael Ramsey (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 12:88
Meta Fit
80% (4/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash, Inventor Extraordinaire | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Bravo, Showstopper | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 10% | Loss |
dropped • 1-4-0
40%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.9
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Vore (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 32:68
Round 2: Loss vs Eric Dauernnheim (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
Round 3: Win vs Jaden Urdiales (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 12:88, underdog victory
Round 4: Loss vs Evan Vargas (Bravo, Showstopper) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
10:90
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Joe Santianna (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 12:88
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Lexi, Livewire | 10% | Win |
| R4 | Bravo, Showstopper | 65% | Loss |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 10% | Loss |
dropped • 0-5-0
40%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Gilmartin (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs James Mangles (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 50:50
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Chris Simpson (Dromai, Ash Artist) - Expected: 32:68
10:90
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Lindsey Thiele (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 12:88
10:90
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Devin Jackson (Lexi, Livewire) - Expected: 12:88
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dromai, Ash Artist | 30% | Loss |
| R4 | Lexi, Livewire | 10% | Loss |
| R5 | Lexi, Livewire | 10% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.