Sunday Showdown: Shinjuku 2026 - Dromai (SAGE)

Dromai

14 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Miyaji Kotaro

5th • 6-2-0

38%

Meta

+2.9

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs ryo sugawara (Lexi) - Expected: 50:50

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Takamasa Kamei (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 17:83

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Takehiro Shibasaki (Briar) - Expected: 46:54

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs KAZUMA SUZUKI (Briar) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs KeDuo Yang (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs 圭資山村 (Kassai) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Justin Cu (Oscilio) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

15:85

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Takamasa Kamei (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 17:83

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.42
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.56
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Oscilio	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.31
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-

KeDuo Yang

16th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

4.0

Surp

2.8

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs naoki tsuji (Iyslander) - Expected: 42:58

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs 圭資山村 (Kassai) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Yuuki Abo (Briar) - Expected: 46:54

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs ゆうひ石丸 (Florian) - Expected: 83:17, favorite upset

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Miyaji Kotaro (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Harrison Callahan (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs akio harada (Lexi) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.18
R2	Silver Age	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.48
R4	Silver Age	Florian	85%	Loss	✓	0.83	-
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

レオン藤倉

40th • 4-2-1

57%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.5

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Draw vs 綸太宇野 (Oldhim) - Expected: 45:55

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Sam Davison (Dash) - Expected: 64:36

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs YIKAI WANG (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Justin Cu (Oscilio) - Expected: 35:65

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs manh hung nguyen (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 17:83

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs LEE JUI-CHI (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs John Gammons (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Draw	✗	0.45	-
R2	Silver Age	Dash	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.19
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R6	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

真斗瀬理

23rd • 4-3-0

14%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.3

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Theo T. (Fai) - Expected: 58:42

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Aleix Córdoba (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Takamasa Kamei (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 17:83

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs QING GUO (Briar) - Expected: 46:54

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Mizuki Takei (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tsz Lung Wu (Briar) - Expected: 46:54

20:80

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs ryo inoue (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 22:78

Meta Fit

14% (1/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	15%	Win	✗	0.83	0.72
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.64
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	15%	Win	✗	0.83	1.80
R6	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-

Ryotarou Yamada

32nd • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs TSUNAKI SAWAI (Lexi) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Anthony O’Hara (Fai) - Expected: 58:42

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ryan Cheong (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs LEE JUI-CHI (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kuan Li (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Atsunori Kanamaru (Briar) - Expected: 46:54

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Theo T. (Fai) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.96
R7	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Harrison Callahan

39th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Colby Gray (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs ryo inoue (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 22:78

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs 裕貴藤盛 (Lexi) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Charles Lee (Iyslander) - Expected: 42:58

90:10

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Marquis Tan (Enigma) - Expected: 90:10

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs KeDuo Yang (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tomoyuki Yagura (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.72
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	90%	Win	✓	0.10	0.11
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

拓弥橋本

56th • 3-3-1

57%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.4

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Nicholas Wong (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 17:83

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Colby Gray (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tsz Lung Wu (Briar) - Expected: 46:54

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Draw vs 将貴山田 (Florian) - Expected: 83:17

90:10

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Hotaka Hashimoto (Enigma) - Expected: 90:10

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Oldhim) - Expected: 45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Koumei Kaneko (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R2	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	Silver Age	Florian	85%	Draw	✓	0.83	-
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	90%	Win	✓	0.10	0.11
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R7	Silver Age	Boltyn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Kuan Li

50th • 3-4-0

43%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

1.9

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jakub Tepper (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tomoko Ishimaru (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Justin Cu (Oscilio) - Expected: 35:65

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Takehiro Shibasaki (Briar) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Ryotarou Yamada (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs 聡本田 (Oldhim) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Kanata Ishimaru (Oldhim) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.64
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.98
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

John Gammons

62nd • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs 嵩小山内 (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs manh hung nguyen (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 17:83

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Tomoko Ishimaru (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Kazuhiro Watanabe (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs 克夫梅澤 (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs naoki tsuji (Iyslander) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs レオン藤倉 (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Kazuya Murakami

dropped • 3-2-0

60%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.1

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Takehiro Imayama (Florian) - Expected: 83:17

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs 克夫梅澤 (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Atsushi Taichi (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs suk kyo suh (Oscilio) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Justin Cu (Oscilio) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

PANG CHEN

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.4

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs 尚規石坂 (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs 小柳元輝 (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 57:43

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Anthony O’Hara (Fai) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs 綸太宇野 (Oldhim) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.40
R3	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

ayaka sato

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.1

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tsz Lung Wu (Briar) - Expected: 46:54

90:10

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Xingyu ZHOU (Enigma) - Expected: 90:10

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs 三輪佑樹 (Oscilio) - Expected: 35:65

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs 小林孝 (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 17:83

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (1.9 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	90%	Win	✓	0.10	0.08
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-

Ryosuke Nakata

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.7

Perf

0.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kaori Ohara (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 22:78

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs 聡本田 (Oldhim) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (0.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	20%	Loss	✗	0.22	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Yuji Tanaka

dropped • 0-2-0

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Hiroshi Noguchi (Briar) - Expected: 46:54

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Gavin Teo (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 17:83

Meta Fit

0% (0/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.