Sunday Showdown: Shinjuku 2026 - Blaze, Firemind (SAGE)

Blaze, Firemind

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Ryo Takashima

1st • 9-1-0

70%

Meta

+4.1

Perf

5.1

Surp

5.4

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs SUMETHA Udomkosonkit (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs hayato kawashima (Iyslander) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Kohaku Ishimaru (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs RYUTA NAKADA (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Maya Yagura (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs ryo inoue (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

25:75

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs TSUNAKI SAWAI (Lexi) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Pudding Tam (Briar) - Expected: 51:49

80:20

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs ゆうひ石丸 (Florian) - Expected: 80:20

45:55

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Win vs Takamasa Kamei (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

70% (7/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 9 actual)

Surprise

5.1 total deviation

Difficulty

5.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.28
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.39
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.49
R6	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R7	Silver Age	Lexi	25%	Win	✗	0.75	1.40
R8	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.78
R9	Silver Age	Florian	80%	Win	✓	0.20	0.29
R10	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.08

小柳元輝

65th • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs 圭資山村 (Kassai) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs PANG CHEN (Dromai) - Expected: 43:57

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs 綸太宇野 (Oldhim) - Expected: 32:68

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs SUMETHA Udomkosonkit (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tomoko Ishimaru (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Koumei Kaneko (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs John Wang (Fai) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R4	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Boltyn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

直人三田

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tomoyuki Yagura (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

10:90

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Marquis Tan (Enigma) - Expected: 10:90

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs 洋介小池 (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Colby Gray (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-
R3	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.