Oldhim at Sunday Showdown: Shinjuku 2026

Oldhim

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kanata Ishimaru

33rd • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.4

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs 将貴山田 (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Yu Cheng Lai (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Michael Herzner (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Manson Hsiau (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jakub Tepper (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Theo T. (Fai) - Expected: 37:63

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Kuan Li (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.10
R4	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.14
R5	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.87

Kyoshiro Takegahara

42nd • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.5

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Justin Cu (Oscilio) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs 匠哉小島 (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs SUMETHA Udomkosonkit (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Michael Herzner (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Manson Hsiau (Briar) - Expected: 85:15, favorite upset

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs 拓弥橋本 (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

85:15

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Hiroshi Noguchi (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (4.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.14
R5	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Loss	✓	0.85	-
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.74
R7	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.24

聡本田

59th • 2-5-0

86%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.4

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs ゆうひ石丸 (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ryosuke Nakata (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs 圭資山村 (Kassai) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Hiroshi Noguchi (Briar) - Expected: 85:15

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tatsuaki Tsuchida (Fai) - Expected: 37:63

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Kuan Li (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Naoki Sato (Oscilio) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.14
R5	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R7	Silver Age	Oscilio	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-

綸太宇野

dropped • 3-2-1

83%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.5

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Draw vs レオン藤倉 (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs 小林孝 (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs 小柳元輝 (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 68:32

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs PANG CHEN (Dromai) - Expected: 55:45

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs KAZUMA SUZUKI (Briar) - Expected: 85:15, favorite upset

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Saori TOYOIZUMI (Oscilio) - Expected: 64:36

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Draw	✓	0.55	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.28
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.58
R5	Silver Age	Briar	85%	Loss	✓	0.85	-
R6	Silver Age	Oscilio	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.64

タカヤスギモト

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.4

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs suk kyo suh (Oscilio) - Expected: 64:36

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Charles Lee (Iyslander) - Expected: 76:24

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs 嵩小山内 (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs John Wang (Fai) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

80:20

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs akio harada (Lexi) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.15
R3	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.16
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	80%	Loss	✓	0.80	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.