Sunday Showdown: Shinjuku 2026 - Florian (SAGE)

Florian

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

ゆうひ石丸

3rd • 8-1-0

56%

Meta

+4.5

Perf

4.9

Surp

5.1

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs 聡本田 (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tatsuaki Tsuchida (Fai) - Expected: 25:75, underdog victory

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs 尚規石坂 (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs KeDuo Yang (Dromai) - Expected: 17:83, underdog victory

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Takamasa Kamei (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs 嵩小山内 (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Kohaku Ishimaru (Briar) - Expected: 42:58

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs TSUNAKI SAWAI (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

20:80

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Ryo Takashima (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 20:80

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+4.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.9 total deviation

Difficulty

5.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Fai	25%	Win	✗	0.75	0.44
R3	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	15%	Win	✗	0.83	1.15
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.97
R8	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-

将貴山田

66th • 2-3-2

43%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.4

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kanata Ishimaru (Oldhim) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs KAZUMA SUZUKI (Briar) - Expected: 42:58

25:75

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs John Wang (Fai) - Expected: 25:75

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Draw vs 拓弥橋本 (Dromai) - Expected: 17:83

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Yu Cheng Lai (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Draw vs Tomoko Ishimaru (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Takehiro Shibasaki (Briar) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	25%	Loss	✗	0.25	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	15%	Draw	✗	0.17	-
R5	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.25

Takehiro Imayama

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Kazuya Murakami (Dromai) - Expected: 17:83

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs LEE JUI-CHI (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs ryo sugawara (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R2	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.