Aurora at Sunday Showdown: Shinjuku 2026
Aurora
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
46th • 3-4-0
100%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
3.5
Surp
1.1
Diff
R1
R1 SAGE
Round 1: Win vs PANG CHEN (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)
R2
R2 SAGE
Round 2: Win vs Gaia Enomoto (Enigma) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R3
R3 SAGE
Round 3: Loss vs ゆうひ 石丸 (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
R4
R4 SAGE
Round 4: Loss vs Mizuki Takei (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
R5
R5 SAGE
Round 5: Win vs Tomoyuki Yagura (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)
R6
R6 SAGE
Round 6: Loss vs Manson Hsiau (Briar) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
R7
R7 SAGE
Round 7: Loss vs RYUTA NAKADA (Briar) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)
Meta Fit
100% (7/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dromai | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Enigma | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Florian | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Bravo, Flattering Showman | 50% | Loss |
| R5 | Kayo, Strong-arm | 50% | Win |
| R6 | Briar | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Briar | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.