Sunday Showdown: Shinjuku 2026 - Bravo, Flattering Showman (SAGE)

Bravo, Flattering Showman

11 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Takamasa Kamei

2nd • 8-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.5

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs akio harada (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Miyaji Kotaro (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs 真斗瀬理 (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs TSUNAKI SAWAI (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs ゆうひ石丸 (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs 大和宮脇 (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Tsz Lung Wu (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

85:15

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Miyaji Kotaro (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17

60:40

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Kohaku Ishimaru (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R10 SAGE

Round 10: Loss vs Ryo Takashima (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (10/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (6.5 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.06
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.08
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.23
R5	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R7	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.54
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.22
R9	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.69
R10	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Nicholas Wong

12th • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.3

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs 拓弥橋本 (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tsz Lung Wu (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Jakub Tepper (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Kohei Sasaki (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs 嵩小山内 (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs TSUNAKI SAWAI (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs manh hung nguyen (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.04
R2	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Aleix Córdoba

24th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs 洋介小池 (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs 真斗瀬理 (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17, favorite upset

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tatsuaki Tsuchida (Fai) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs manh hung nguyen (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Yuki Matsumoto (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

30:70

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Justin Cu (Oscilio) - Expected: 28:72

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Gaia Enomoto (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Loss	✓	0.83	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.39
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.55
R6	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

manh hung nguyen

30th • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.6

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Atsunori Kanamaru (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs John Gammons (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs LEE JUI-CHI (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Aleix Córdoba (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs レオン藤倉 (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Kohei Sasaki (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Nicholas Wong (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.08
R3	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.20
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Mizuki Takei

34th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.6

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Yuki Matsumoto (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Koumei Kaneko (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

30:70

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Charles Lee (Iyslander) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs 尚規石坂 (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs 真斗瀬理 (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17, favorite upset

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Akira Hanada (Fai) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Kohei Sasaki (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	Silver Age	Boltyn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.73
R4	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Loss	✓	0.83	-
R6	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Kohei Sasaki

43rd • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs LEE JUI-CHI (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Chihaya Ishimaru (Fai) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Tomotsugu Kikuta (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Nicholas Wong (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Tsz Lung Wu (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs manh hung nguyen (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Mizuki Takei (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.26
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Gavin Teo

48th • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs ryo inoue (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Yuji Tanaka (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs 尚輝町田 (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Maya Yagura (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Atsushi Taichi (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs akio harada (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs KAZUMA SUZUKI (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.08
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R5	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

小林孝

dropped • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs hayato kawashima (Iyslander) - Expected: 31:69

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs 綸太宇野 (Oldhim) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Akira Hanada (Fai) - Expected: 53:47

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs ayaka sato (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs RYUTA NAKADA (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs 裕貴藤盛 (Lexi) - Expected: 67:33

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Fai	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.18
R5	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R6	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.58

Tomotsugu Kikuta

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs 三輪佑樹 (Oscilio) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Hiroshi Noguchi (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Kohei Sasaki (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Gaia Enomoto (Enigma) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Win	✗	0.72	0.46
R2	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

尚輝町田

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Saori TOYOIZUMI (Oscilio) - Expected: 28:72

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kazuhiro Watanabe (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Gavin Teo (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Nelson Stephen Ventura (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R2	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

風太荒井

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs RYUTA NAKADA (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs YIKAI WANG (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Yu Cheng Lai (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Ryan Cheong (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.