Sunday Showdown: Shinjuku 2026 - Lexi (SAGE)

Lexi

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

TSUNAKI SAWAI

5th • 5-3-0

75%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ryotarou Yamada (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Justin Cu (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs KAZUMA SUZUKI (Briar) - Expected: 65:35

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Takamasa Kamei (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 33:67

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs suk kyo suh (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Nicholas Wong (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Ryo Takashima (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs ゆうひ石丸 (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.23
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.19
R7	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R8	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

akio harada

11th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

3.8

Surp

4.3

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Takamasa Kamei (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 33:67

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Jyunnosuke Yano (Cindra) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs 匠哉小島 (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs 三輪佑樹 (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs タカヤスギモト (Oldhim) - Expected: 20:80, underdog victory

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Gavin Teo (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs KeDuo Yang (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R2	Silver Age	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	20%	Win	✗	0.80	1.66
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.36
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

裕貴藤盛

52nd • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Maya Yagura (Briar) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Kohaku Ishimaru (Briar) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Harrison Callahan (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Tsz Lung Wu (Briar) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Theo T. (Fai) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs 小林孝 (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 33:67

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Charles Lee (Iyslander) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

ryo sugawara

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Miyaji Kotaro (Dromai) - Expected: 50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs 三輪佑樹 (Oscilio) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Takehiro Imayama (Florian) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.