Sunday Showdown: Shinjuku 2026 - Iyslander (SAGE)

Iyslander

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

naoki tsuji

22nd • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.2

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs KeDuo Yang (Dromai) - Expected: 58:42

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Taishi Naganoma (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs suk kyo suh (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Naoki Sato (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs YIKAI WANG (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs John Gammons (Dromai) - Expected: 58:42

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs 圭資山村 (Kassai) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Kassai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

hayato kawashima

47th • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs 小林孝 (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 69:31

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ryo Takashima (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Chihaya Ishimaru (Fai) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs 圭資山村 (Kassai) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs QING GUO (Briar) - Expected: 63:37

10:90

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs suguru ishimaru (Enigma) - Expected: 10:90

10:90

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Marquis Tan (Enigma) - Expected: 10:90

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.08
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.57
R4	Silver Age	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.48
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-
R7	Silver Age	Enigma	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-

Charles Lee

63rd • 2-5-0

86%

Meta

-1.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs youngchan ju (Unknown)

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs タカヤスギモト (Oldhim) - Expected: 24:76

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Mizuki Takei (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Harrison Callahan (Dromai) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Michael Herzner (Briar) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Takehiro Shibasaki (Briar) - Expected: 63:37

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs 裕貴藤盛 (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.58
R7	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

TAITO SUZUKI

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Atsushi Taichi (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Nakara Juntavong (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs 大和宮脇 (Dash) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R3	Silver Age	Dash	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Nakara Juntavong

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

0.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

10:90

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs suguru ishimaru (Enigma) - Expected: 10:90

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs TAITO SUZUKI (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (0.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.